Leap year sets new temperature records

Russia will fall under the pressure saw

Climatologists have already announced that 2024 will break all temperature records. However, what else can you expect from a leap year? But climate problems are not limited to the coming months. Scientists from different countries agree that abnormal heat, temperature changes and, as a result, various natural disasters – forest fires, tornadoes and hurricanes – these are all the consequences of global warming that we will now have to live with constantly. Climatologist Igor VERIKHOV talks about what natural anomalies await Russia this year.

– We often attribute various weather vagaries to global warming, how justified is this?

– Global warming did not start yesterday or even this century. Back in the mid-1970s, scientists began to observe an increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface. And since then, each subsequent decade has been warmer than the previous one, and the 2010s are marked as the warmest on record.

– Is this process accelerating?

– Yes, in 2023, all kinds of temperature records were broken. The highest daytime temperatures ever recorded in the world occurred in early July. It is very alarming that Antarctica’s sea ice extent has dropped to a record low. In addition, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to increase at a very rapid rate.

– Nevertheless, in Russia, global warming manifests itself in a very unique way: either torrential rains in the middle of winter, or bitter frosts, and after a day or two – warming and slush again. How to explain all this?

– One of the main consequences of this process is the great instability of the weather, sudden temperature changes, pressure changes, the so-called pressure saw. And while in some parts of the world there are heavy rains, in others there is abnormal heat, as, in fact, was the case last summer.

– Now they are increasingly talking about the influence of a phenomenon such as El Niño on the climate, how does this affect the weather in Russia?

– El Niño is a natural phenomenon caused by fluctuations in water temperature in the Pacific Ocean, but it can influence the weather in different parts of the Earth, including ours, which leads to extreme weather events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts and floods. By the way, the recent natural disasters in the south of our country are clear proof of this.

– What can we expect in terms of weather in the coming year?

– Firstly, there is great instability of the weather. As you rightly said, today there is bitter frost, and tomorrow the temperature goes through zero, the snow begins to melt, it rains, and in a few days frosts may strike again, and so on. Moreover, such instability will manifest itself most sharply in winter.

Second, there is a steady increase in global average temperatures. This trend looks like an ascending ladder. I think that the hottest month of 2024 in our northern hemisphere will again be July. And thirdly, the year 2024 marks the peak of solar activity.

– What does this threaten?

– Active solar radiation can cause an increase in the average temperature on the Earth’s surface. In addition, solar activity weakens the magnetic field of our planet, which also affects global changes in the atmosphere and can lead to various climate disasters – droughts and floods. In general, in the new year you can expect any surprises from the weather, but since they are now repeated with enviable consistency, you need to stop being afraid of them, instead you need to study them and learn how to prevent them.