It was again impossible to deliver humanitarian supplies to Karabakh

In Armenia, joint military exercises Eagle Partner 2023 with the US military started on September 11. They will last until September 20, the combat units of the two countries will conduct operations “to stabilize relations between the conflicting parties while carrying out peacekeeping tasks.” The maneuvers are taking place against the backdrop of the continued concentration of troops of Armenia and Azerbaijan along the common border and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been effectively under blockade since April after the Azerbaijanis installed their checkpoint in the Lachin corridor.

Since July 26, a convoy of trucks with humanitarian cargo has not been able to enter the Armenian enclave. Baku refuses to let them through, declaring that crossing the state border must take place in accordance with Azerbaijani legislation. Humanitarian organizations are offered to use the alternative road Agdam – Askeran on the Azerbaijani side. On August 29, the Red Crescent Society tried to send two trucks with 40 tons of flour along this road, but at the entrance to Askeran the convoy was blocked by local Armenian residents.

Assistant to the Azerbaijani President Hikmet Hajiyev wrote on his page X (formerly Twitter) on September 9 that, at the initiative of Moscow, the Russian Red Cross, in coordination with the Azerbaijani Red Crescent, will send a cargo of food to Nagorno-Karabakh along the Agdam road on September 10. But, as the Azertac agency reports, as a result of pressure from the International Committee of the Red Cross, the humanitarian cargo was detained in the city of Barda.

By refusing to accept cargo from Baku, Stepanakert is seeking to implement the text of the tripartite statement of the presidents of November 2020, which put an end to the second Karabakh war, says Nikolai Silaev, a senior researcher at the Center for Caucasus Problems at MGIMO. The expert recalled that, according to the text of the agreement, the Lachin corridor connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia should be open and controlled by Russian peacekeepers. “After the installation of the checkpoint, Baku violated part of its agreements, and the residents of Karabakh do not want to create an alternative to Lachin, because they are worried about their safety,” the expert added.

In addition, Stepanakert fears that the opening of an alternative road without the simultaneous unblocking of the Lachin corridor will give Baku additional leverage on the local Armenian leadership, says political scientist Andrey Areshev. According to him, residents of the region are afraid that the Azerbaijani authorities will begin to manipulate this issue and, if necessary, close the road again without providing an alternative. “This will intensify migration processes in the region, after which Baku will begin to dictate its terms from a obviously stronger position. There is a context of many years of military confrontation, so for Armenians, proposals coming from Baku are perceived with a very high degree of mistrust,” the expert added.

The degradation of the humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh provoked an internal political crisis in Stepanakert. On August 31, the leader of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Arayik Haratyunyan, resigned. On September 9, at a special meeting, parliament members elected Secretary of the Security Council Samvel Shahramanyan as the new president. On the same day, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry called the elections in the republic “a gross violation of the constitution and laws of Azerbaijan,” and their holding was a sign that Yerevan and Stepanakert “took the path of provocations and aggravation of the situation.” The elections in the republic were not recognized by the authorities of the European Union, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, Great Britain and Pakistan. The next day, Turkish President Recep Erdogan at the G20 summit called the “steps of the Armenian authorities” in Nagorno-Karabakh “wrong” and announced telephone conversations with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Since the end of August, Baku and Yerevan have accused each other of shelling the territories of their states. During one of the clashes on September 1 in the area of ​​the Armenian village of Sotk, according to the Armenian Ministry of Defense, four Armenian servicemen were killed. On September 7, Pashinyan at a government meeting announced the deterioration of the military-political situation in the region due to the concentration of Azerbaijani troops along the contact line in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. He also called on members of the UN Security Council to prevent escalation. For its part, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry called the accusations of the Armenian leadership “false political manipulation” and the threat to security in the region – “continuing military-political provocations on the part of Armenia.” At the same time, Baku does not deny the movement of troops, but explains it as planned exercises.

As armed forces are deployed to the contact line, the risk of military escalation involving Turkey and Iran increases, Areshev noted. “Clashes could occur both in Nagorno-Karabakh, in the border strip, and in the Nakhichevan sector – this Azerbaijani enclave is geographically closest to the heart of Armenia,” the expert concludes.