Ilham Aliyev refused negotiations with Nikol Pashinyan in Spain

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev refused a trip to Granada, Spain, where his first talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan after the “anti-terrorist operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh were planned on October 5. The event was also expected to be attended by the leaders of France Emmanuel Macron, Germany Olaf Scholz and the President of the European Council Charles Michel, the Azerbaijani state agency APA reported on October 4.

According to journalists, Baku insisted on the participation of a Turkish representative in the meeting, but was refused by France and Germany. The agency’s interlocutors named statements by French officials against Baku as another reason for Aliyev’s refusal to travel. “Against the background of the visit of the French Minister of Foreign Affairs to Armenia and statements regarding possible French-Armenian military cooperation, the Azerbaijani side does not see the need to participate in this format,” the message says.

In addition, the APA source noted that discussing the problems of the South Caucasus with representatives of countries far from the region is pointless: “Any format in which France participates is unacceptable for Azerbaijan.” Baku emphasized that the resumption of the negotiation process will be possible only on the Azerbaijan-Armenia-EU platform. In turn, Pashinyan did not refuse to visit Granada, where he plans to meet with “international partners” on October 5, the press service of the Armenian prime minister reports.

The day before, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, following negotiations with her Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan in Yerevan, said that Paris agrees to sign an agreement on the provision of military equipment to Armenia, without specifying details. She emphasized that her visit to the region is an indicator that France will “be attentive to threats to the territorial integrity of friendly Armenia.” The column also previously announced plans to open a French consulate in the border Armenian Syunik region, where the so-called Zangezur transport corridor is supposed to pass, which would connect the western regions of Azerbaijan with its enclave in Nakhichevan and further with Turkey.

Prior to this, the head of the French defense department, Sebastien Lecornu, in an interview with France Info, noted that the French side “opened its defense mission in Armenia, which allows for daily dialogue with the Armenian army to study their defense and security needs.”

In turn, on October 4, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry condemned Colonna’s statements, declaring the inadmissibility of France’s arming of Armenia and again dragging it “into aggression and military adventure.” “Paris’ efforts to intervene in the region will fail,” reports the press service of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry.

France in the Caucasian direction is guided by its public opinion, which is pro-Armenian, explains Arnaud Dubien, director of the French-Russian analytical center Observo. According to him, the country is home to a large and quite influential Armenian diaspora, the number of which, according to various estimates, can reach from 400,000 to 750,000 people. “In addition, many French people sympathize with the Armenians because of the tragic events in the Ottoman Empire in 1915 during the First World War. Therefore, Paris could not help but sympathize with the Armenians in the recent clashes in the South Caucasus,” the expert said.

On the other hand, Dubien continues, France’s decision to provide military assistance to Armenia is caused by Turkish and Russian factors in the South Caucasus. According to the expert, Paris today has extremely strained relations with these two countries, and through the intensification of its foreign policy it is potentially trying to create trouble in the region. “The French expect to hit two targets with one blow. It is not yet entirely clear what specific military supplies we are talking about. I think this process will be opposed not only by Russia and Turkey, but also by Iran, which is not interested in the presence of extra-regional forces in the region,” the expert noted.

The French establishment also has a request for compensation for the failures of its policies in Africa and in other foreign policy areas, believes Stanislav Pritchin, an expert at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS. “In this regard, Armenia is a country that is most favorable for political PR effect. But objectively and technically, Paris has little opportunity to oust Russia from Armenia,” the expert said.

To do this, France will need to deploy its military contingent in the region or create an infrastructure of security guarantees for Armenia after consultations within NATO, where Turkey will not give its consent, Pritchin believes.

The Armenian Security Council announced a possible meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev in Granada on September 24. Two days later, the special envoys of Armenia Armen Grigoryan and Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev agreed in Brussels on the issues and parameters of future negotiations between the leaders of the two countries. The meeting was attended by advisers to the President of the European Council, France and Germany, as well as the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar.

According to Pritchin, Aliyev’s refusal to go to negotiations in Granada is unlikely to lead to Moscow taking over the role of the main mediator in the negotiation process. “In the conditions of cooling Armenian-Russian relations, I can hardly imagine that Yerevan will agree with Moscow’s mediation in signing fateful decisions. Western curators will also not approve of this,” the expert concluded.