Hydrophysicist Stanichny assessed the possibility of flooding the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant

The water level in the Kakhovka reservoir has risen to a record 17 meters, which exceeds the norm by two and a half meters. It is impossible to discharge water at the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in sufficient quantities: one valve is out of order due to a direct hit by HIMARS, the other three do not work, the lifting cranes do not function due to constant shelling.

It is dangerous to carry out repair work because of the snipers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who have settled on the right bank. Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Crimean hydrophysicist Sergei Stanichny told MK about what the consequences could be with a further rise in the water level in the reservoir, and what threatens a dam break near Kamenka-Dneprovskaya.

“I want to say right away that now there is confusion in media reports, the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir has risen not by 17 meters, but up to 17 meters from the calculated level,” says Sergey Vladimirovich. – And the norm is 14-15 meters.

There is a whole cascade of hydroelectric power stations and six reservoirs on the Dnieper. Kakhovskaya HPP is the sixth, lowest and last stage of this cascade. Further, the Dnieper flows into the Dnieper Estuary, which is an integral part of the Black Sea.

According to Vladimir Rogov, leader of the We Are Together with Russia movement, the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir could rise to a critical level due to uncontrolled discharge of water from the Dnieper hydroelectric power station, which is located upstream in Zaporozhye. In the territory controlled by Kyiv, the floodgates were simply opened, filling the Kakhovka reservoir above its natural level.

In turn, discharge from the Kakhovskaya HPP is difficult. Due to damaged weir gate assemblies, hydroelectric workers are unable to regulate water release. The hydroelectric power station is under the gunpoint of Ukrainian snipers who have settled on the right bank of the Dnieper.

– As far as I know, there was one main section at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, through which water was released. There are additional ones that are now reportedly damaged.

I looked at recent satellite images, and a fairly large amount of water is now descending through the Kakhovka dam. The reset is underway, it cannot be said that everything is blocked there. Here, as in the problem with two communicating vessels, how much water will be poured in from Zaporozhye, where the Dnieper hydroelectric power station stands, and how much will pour out through the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station downstream of the Dnieper. But so far I don’t see anything critical. Yes, the water is slightly above the normal level. But there, most likely, everything is done with some extrapolation. All of a sudden, the situation starts to get worse.

The second confusion, which, according to the scientist, has now arisen in the media, is related to the dam near the city of Kamenka-Dneprovskaya.

– This dam is located in the area of ​​​​Energodar and the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. It separates, fences off the Belozersky estuary from the Kakhovka reservoir. And now we are talking about the breakthrough of this dam due to a sharp rise in the water level in the reservoir. In this case, many villages located nearby will be flooded: Kamenka-Dneprovskaya, Velikaya Znamenka, Vodyanoye … Energodar is located a little to the north.

Renat Karchaa, adviser to the general director of Rosenergoatom, said that a probable dam break would cause flooding of the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. Power cables from spray pools and pumping stations may be underwater. That will create risks for nuclear safety.

— An earthen rampart was built around the cooling pond at the nuclear power plant, which can be considered as a dam. Its height is 21 meters. This shaft encloses the cooling basin from the Kakhovka reservoir. In order for the cooling pond to flood, the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir must rise by more than 20 meters. Now there are about 17. But, of course, we must be prepared for the fact that the situation may worsen.

“Nuclear plants were designed taking into account all kinds of natural disasters,” says Alexander Uvarov, an expert on nuclear energy, in turn. – Certain measures for their safety were taken in peacetime. These measures would be sufficient if additional threats in the form of shelling were not created. Let’s hope that there will be no scenarios at the Zaporozhye NPP, as at the Japanese nuclear power plant Fukushima-1 in March 2011. The personnel at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, both Russians and Ukrainians – the Soviet “ferment”, will go and do everything possible to prevent the tragedy. And our military will help.