How Transcaucasia found itself on the brink of the third Karabakh conflict

On the afternoon of September 19, the Azerbaijani army began shelling targets in Karabakh, accompanying this with a statement about the start of “anti-terrorist measures of a local nature.” By “events,” Baku means “the use of high-precision weapons on the front line and in the depths” of the territory controlled by the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR).

There are Russian peacekeepers on the demarcation line between the parties to the Karabakh conflict under the 2020 agreements. Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said that Russia’s top priority is to ensure the security of the Armenian population of Karabakh. The Russian military, according to Peskov, is in contact with both sides to return the situation to a diplomatic track. The only regulatory basis for this are joint documents 2-3 years old, taking into account “the recognition by the Armenian side of the territory of Azerbaijan as of 1991 (i.e., including Karabakh),” Peskov said.

The goals of the strikes by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense are the disarmament and withdrawal of “formations of the Armenian armed forces from our territories, the neutralization of their military infrastructure.” The reason for them was declared to be the incidents that occurred on the morning of September 19, when mines on the Fizuli-Shusha road blew up first the transport of the state highway inspection, and then the internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan, which led to the death of six people. The Armenian Ministry of Defense denies involvement in the bombings, shelling and other actions of the military, of which Azerbaijan accuses them.

Russia is receiving information from Azerbaijan about the operation in Karabakh, said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. But she was warned about it not in advance, but “a few minutes in advance,” Zakharova claims.

According to her, Russia is “deeply alarmed” by the situation and now maintains contacts on the situation in Karabakh, including with Azerbaijan. “The Russian side urges the conflicting parties to stop the bloodshed and return to the path of political and diplomatic settlement,” the press service quotes Zakharova as saying. The basis for this, says Zakharova, may be the beginning of the supply of humanitarian aid to Karabakh, about which Vedomosti wrote on September 12. At the same time, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated that the only path to peace in the region is the complete withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces from Karabakh and the “dissolution of the regime” [непризнанной НКР] in Stepanakert (the capital of the unrecognized NKR).

The Armenian military department, in turn, stated that the country’s army is not present in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian government claims that Russia did not warn Yerevan about Baku’s impending actions, and calls them “large-scale aggression.” Armenia called on the UN Security Council and Moscow to intervene in the situation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the unrecognized NKR accused “international players” of failing to lift the Azerbaijani blockade, which, in its opinion, condoned the outbreak of hostilities.

At about 14.00 Moscow time on September 19, a telephone conversation took place between the Ministers of Defense of Azerbaijan Zakir Hasanov and Turkey Yashar Guler, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense reports. The Turkish minister declared full support for Azerbaijan. EU diplomacy chief Josep Borrell condemned the escalation of the conflict. “Azerbaijan’s military actions must cease immediately to allow sincere dialogue between Baku and Karabakh Armenians,” he wrote on Network X (formerly Twitter). Borrell also stated that the confrontation “should not be used as a pretext for the forced exodus of the local population (Armenians of Karabakh – Vedomosti”). In connection with the current situation, the French Foreign Ministry demanded that a meeting of the UN Security Council be convened. At the same time, on September 19, the Armenian-American Eagle Partner exercises have not yet ended on the territory of Armenia.

At 14.20, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan convened a meeting of the Security Council of the republic. At the same time, Pashinyan stated that Armenia does not intend to start military operations. During the day, people began to gather near the government building of the republic in Yerevan, demanding that the authorities intervene in the confrontation and help Karabakh. But the Armenian Ministry of Defense, apparently, remains calm. His representative announced a relatively stable situation on the border with Azerbaijan. The Ministry of Defense of the unrecognized NKR states that the armed forces of Azerbaijan began firing along the entire line of contact at 13.00. Karabakh authorities later announced the death of two civilians and the injury of nine.

A group of local residents of Stepanakert reported to Vedomosti throughout the day that there was no cell phone service in the city. Eyewitnesses add that those who want to evacuate cannot do so. An air raid siren sounds in the city. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, on the contrary, announced the work of humanitarian corridors and “reception points,” including on the Lachin road towards Armenia “and other directions.”

Taking into account the previous phases of the conflict, it is not yet possible to say exactly what scale the current armed confrontation could reach, says Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS. According to him, both Azerbaijan and Armenia are dissatisfied with the situation that has developed after the Second Karabakh War in 2020. “If the current escalation drags on, then Baku may take complete control of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. If everything calms down, Azerbaijan’s actions can be attributed to the continuation of the previously practiced “salami tactics” – the gradual occupation of more and more new areas, strategic points, transport blockade – aimed at forcing Armenia to quickly conclude a peace treaty on Azerbaijani terms,” the expert suggests .

Azerbaijan is now trying to end the conflict with a final victory and reach the undemarcated Soviet administrative borders of 1991, says political scientist Artur Atayev. He explains that Baku took advantage of a convenient foreign policy context, in which Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan distanced himself from Russia, but at the same time did not have time to secure the support of France and the United States. Ataev believes that Russia’s current position, aimed at organizing a diplomatic solution, is the most pragmatic, as it corresponds to its historical role in Transcaucasia.

How far Azerbaijan will go will depend on the reaction of the US and the EU, Vedomosti’s diplomatic source believes. If the reaction is harsh, a cessation of hostilities on his part is possible; apparently, in this case, the operation was called “measures of a local nature.”

Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev said on the Turkish TV channel TRT that the main tasks are close to completion: “The military targets we identified earlier have already been neutralized. And then, as planned, operations will continue in a targeted manner, on a more limited scale.”

At about 16:00 Moscow time, a representative of the army of the unrecognized NKR said that the intensity of Azerbaijani shelling had decreased. Around this time, the NKR unified information center reported that Karabakh was proposing to “immediately cease fire and sit down at the negotiating table in order to resolve the current situation.” Half an hour later, the administration of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced its readiness to meet with representatives of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh if ​​they fulfill a number of conditions. In particular, Baku agrees to stop “anti-terrorist measures” if “illegal armed groups,” which means the army and police of the unrecognized NKR, surrender their weapons – that is, capitulate. Reuters, citing Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan for Foreign Policy Hikmet Hajiyev, reported at about 19:40 Moscow time that the NKR forces had broken through their defenses “in several places.” This information was not confirmed in Stepanakert, but the press service of the Ministry of Health of the unrecognized republic reported that by the evening of September 19, five residents were killed and 80 were injured on the territory of the republic as a result of Azerbaijani shelling.

On the evening of September 19, the European Parliament called on the EU Council to consider imposing sanctions against the Azerbaijani authorities for military actions in Karabakh. Around the same time, German Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock, following France, called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Turkey, Jeyun Bayramov and Hakan Fidan, held talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking there, said that Ankara supports Azerbaijan’s “operation” in Nagorno-Karabakh. At about 21:40 Moscow time, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that countries in the region can help resolve differences. Iran, for its part, is ready to hold a meeting in the “3+3” format (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Russia and Turkey) in connection with the situation with Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, if earlier Tehran called the start of full-scale hostilities in the region a “red line,” now it has declared that it recognizes Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but the problem of its status must be resolved “through dialogue.”

By 21:30 Moscow time, Russian peacekeepers had evacuated more than 1,800 civilians from Nagorno-Karabakh during the day. No major changes in the position of the parties on the contact line were reported. According to the Commissioner for Human Rights in the unrecognized republic, Gegham Stepanyan, as of 22:30 (21:30 Moscow time), 27 residents of the NKR became victims of shelling from Azerbaijan. Also in the afternoon and evening of September 19, rallies were held in Yerevan near the Russian Embassy and the Armenian government building. The protesters accused Moscow and Prime Minister Pashinyan of “betraying” Karabakh and called for intervention in the situation. The demonstrations were accompanied by clashes with the police.