How mobilization will affect the domestic labor market: experts outline the risks

“The vacated jobs can increase wages”

The mobilization that has begun is spreading to 300,000 Russians, which is less than 0.5% of the total number of people employed in the economy. At first glance, it should not create serious problems for the domestic labor market. However, it is obvious that employers will suffer to a greater or lesser extent: firstly, they will have to part with qualified employees, and secondly, they will have to make up for lost personnel, look for an adequate replacement for those who have left.

In total, according to Rosstat, the labor force in the country includes 75.3 million people, of which 71.7 million are employed. Of these, 38.7 million are men, including 36.8 million employed. Most of them are employed in manufacturing (6.4 million), transport (4.9 million), construction (4.3 million) and trade (4.3 million). If in the future the scale of mobilization does not expand, the labor market will “digest” it, but risks and difficulties cannot be avoided, experts say.

Pavel Kudyukin, member of the Council of the Russian Labor Confederation:

“The removal of 300,000 people from the labor market in itself is not the biggest problem. The main risks are related to how the partial mobilization will be carried out. The main thing is that it should not take on some panicky and chaotic forms, when summonses are distributed in a fan way, or they are handed over to everyone who falls “at hand”, handing them out on the street and sending them out to organizations. If there are no obvious violations of the rules of mobilization, if everything is done in an orderly manner and according to the law, if the subpoenas are received strictly by those who are definitely subject to conscription, who have a specific military specialty, then there will be a completely working and predictable situation in the labor market. Otherwise, we risk getting chaos in some areas, fraught with the failure of production processes. After all, a person who has a mobilization order in his hands is obliged to resign. In the case of conscription, the employer is not obliged to keep the employee’s job – in contrast to the situation with military training, when this is provided for by law. As a result, a situation may arise that the employer will lose a qualified specialist who is not easy to replace, with obvious damage to the organization’s activities.

Alexander Safonov, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation:

“First of all, partial mobilization will lead to a shortage of workers. Basically, we are talking about specialists who operate machines and mechanisms. For example, bulldozer and tractor drivers are among the most in-demand professions. On the whole, taking into account the fact that unemployment has begun to grow in our labor market, the partial withdrawal of labor will only exacerbate the situation. It is also clear that there will be a certain shortage of young professionals. On the other hand, people of pre-retirement and retirement age will have more opportunities to find employment and keep their jobs. At the moment, it is difficult to say anything more definite about the trends in the labor market, since it is not clear which professions will be recruited first. When relevant statistics become available, it will be clearer which sectors are facing the greatest personnel risk.”

Sergey Smirnov, Leading Researcher, INION RAS:

“In terms of partial mobilization, we are talking about people who are at the most productive age in terms of the labor market – 30-35 years. These are not youngsters who have not yet managed to achieve at least something in their professional career. Accordingly, in many cases this will be a blow to the employer, who will lose a qualified specialist who has already mastered certain skills. He will have to fire a person and find a replacement, and an equivalent one. Which is extremely difficult today, given the unfavorable demographic situation. Otherwise, you will have to bear additional costs, in particular, to invest in the professional training of a new employee. However, for job seekers, there are also pluses: wages can rise at these vacated jobs. And, apparently, now the struggle for qualified personnel will begin between employers, and it will be easier for applicants to dictate their salary conditions to them. Among the obvious negative consequences of what is happening, I would include the dequalification of the mobilized people, the decrease in their professional level. Especially if a person drops out of the work process not for a month or two, but, say, for six months or a year. As a result, labor productivity will suffer, the quality of products and services will decrease.”