Governors received a reprieve

According to Kommersant’s information, in connection with the special military operation in Ukraine and the announced partial mobilization, the Kremlin’s internal political bloc is not yet planning the traditional autumn rotation of the governor’s corps. According to Kommersant’s sources close to the presidential administration, now the heads of the regions have been instructed to work on correcting the excesses of mobilization, and those who cope with this task are likely to retain their posts at least until the end of this year. However, this does not mean that there will be no resignations before the 2023 elections: according to experts, by spring the Kremlin will have more reasons for such decisions.

The issue of the rotation of governors is not a priority for the presidential administration (AP), say Kommersant’s sources close to it. “There are no signals about resignations,” one of the interlocutors notes. A source in the Presidential Administration explains that in connection with the special operation, the Kremlin, when evaluating the work of governors, first of all pays attention to how they cope with the tasks of mobilization and the fight against the excesses that arise in connection with it. On October 10, at a meeting with the heads of regions elected in September, President Vladimir Putin asked them to “keep under constant control the issues of compliance with the law during partial mobilization, as well as providing the necessary assistance and support to the families of the mobilized.” The governors are primarily responsible not for how many people are called, but for how fair this is done, the interlocutor of Kommersant explains. According to him, in this regard, in the absence of excesses, they will most likely no longer remove one of the heads of regions this year.

Recall that the rotation of governors is traditionally carried out with an eye on the September regional elections. Its main goals are to remove the least popular heads of regions, whose re-election may become problematic, and to promote the renewal of the governor’s corps. In recent years, such replacements, as a rule, have taken place twice a year in a series that experts have dubbed the “governor’s fall”: the first usually occurs in the fall, shortly after the elections, and the second in the spring, shortly before the start of the next regional campaign. For example, from September to December 2017, 10 governors were replaced (including Pskov Governor Andrey Turchak, elected Secretary of the General Council of United Russia), from April to May 2018 – six more. In September-October 2018, eight heads (including Oleg Kozhemyako, who was transferred from Sakhalin to Primorye), lost their posts, and five more in March of the following year. True, the second series of resignations-2019 was atypical: the head of Sevastopol was replaced back in July, and two governors in December. And from January to April 2020, six more governors were rotated.

However, two cases in January 2020 were special: Perm Governor Maxim Reshetnikov left his post due to his appointment as Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and the former head of Chuvashia, Mikhail Ignatiev, was dismissed due to the loss of the president’s confidence. Kommersant’s sources close to the Presidential Administration explained then that in a normal situation there could have been more reshuffles, but the coronavirus changed the priorities of the Kremlin’s personnel policy: governors began to be evaluated primarily by the success of the fight against the pandemic.

The “autumn series” of 2020 was forced to start again in July, when the governor of the Khabarovsk Territory from the Liberal Democratic Party, Sergei Furgal, was dismissed due to charges of organizing murders, who was replaced by fellow party member Mikhail Degtyarev. In September and November 2020, the heads of the Belgorod region and Mordovia resigned, in March and April 2021 the heads of the Penza and Ulyanovsk regions and Tuva were rotated. Finally, in October last year, three governors lost their posts, and in May 2022, five.

Direct elections of 20 governors are scheduled for September 2023. 17 of them are ending their first term of office, three more are long-livers: Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has been in charge of the capital since October 2010, the head of the Moscow region Andrey Vorobyov was appointed to this post in November 2012, and Roman Kopin has been heading Chukotka since July 2008.

The head of the Foundation for the Development of Civil Society, Konstantin Kostin, believes that a serious additional burden has now fallen on the governor’s corps, related to the need to overcome social tension that arose due to errors in the conduct of mobilization, as well as to counteract the negative impact of sanctions on the socio-economic situation. At the same time, the heads of the border regions have a special situation and special difficulties, the expert stipulates: “Therefore, today the usual performance criteria have been seriously adjusted, although not to the detriment of the main social markers. For example, let’s say there was a leader with not the best performance and not very good dynamics, with a lack of achievements. In normal times, someone else, better suited to the tasks of development, could be recommended in his place. But the situation of a special position, and in fact the practice of anti-crisis management, raises not a new thesis that very often “the best is the enemy of the good.” True, it is impossible to guarantee that there will be no replacements in the near future in the current situation, because the negative in society can push for quick personnel decisions, Mr. Kostin admits. In his opinion, there is definitely no task to “mothball” the governor’s corps: if by the spring some heads of regions show a significant negative trend in terms of trust ratings for them or the federal center, or in terms of general social well-being of the population, then they are unlikely to be left in their post . “For leaders and strong middle peasants, the situation is more likely in their favor. But governors, who may have unpleasant situations in the elections, are still not needed by anyone – neither citizens nor the state, ”the expert sums up.

Political scientist Vladimir Shemyakin believes that this year there are indeed reasons to break the tradition of the autumn “governor’s fall”. “There is a difficult winter ahead, which even experienced governors would be good to cope with. And in the spring, you can part with the governors-losers, so that part of the popular discontent goes with them, ”explains the expert. According to him, the rejection of rotation will also increase executive discipline in the governor corps and reduce populism: new governors strive to please the residents, and the current ones, first of all, need to show their effectiveness in front of the Kremlin. However, Mr. Shemyakin also admits that some resignations may still occur if the blame for certain flaws in the mobilization lies with the governors. Moreover, it is the heads of the regions who head the regional draft commissions, the expert recalls: “There may well be documents confirming that certain governors brushed aside the appeals of the military commissars asking for assistance in the work of the military registration and enlistment offices.”

Andrey Vinokurov