Goldman Sachs cut Chinese GDP forecast – Kommersant
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Analysts of the American investment bank Goldman Sachs downgraded its forecast for the growth of the Chinese economy in 2023 and 2024 – from 6% to 5.4% and from 4.6% to 4.5%, respectively. Earlier, analysts from the Swiss bank UBS and the American JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America have already corrected their forecasts for the dynamics of Chinese GDP this year. According to the forecasts of the Chinese government, this year the country’s GDP will grow by 5%.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs explained their decision by the slowdown in the recovery of the Chinese economy after the lifting of anti-COVID restrictions, as evidenced by the statistics of the past two months. According to the Chinese Office for National Statistics, in May, the industrial activity index (PMI) in the country amounted to only 48.8 points, which means a decrease in activity (less than 50 points). The indicator reached a five-month low – the level of December last year, when China lifted severe anti-COVID restrictions.
IN April The unemployment rate among urban youth (ages 16-24) in China hit a record high of 20.4%. This is almost four times the overall unemployment rate in the same period (5.2%). Youth unemployment in China in May reached new high – 20.8%.
To stimulate a slowing economy People’s Bank of China June 15 announced a reduction in the refinancing rate from 2.75% to 2.65% on one of the medium-term lending programs. The volume of the annual lending program is 237 billion yuan ($33 billion). Two days earlier, the Chinese Central Bank lowered refinancing rate from 2% to 1.9% under another program – short-term lending for seven days in the amount of 2 billion yuan ($280 million). In both cases, the bank explained its actions by the desire to “keep sufficient liquidity in the banking system at the proper level.”
The profits of the world’s leading banks in China are falling amid a deteriorating business climate and growing geopolitical tensions, more about this in the material “Kommersant” “Investment banks are tired of China”.
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