“Forget about snow”: weather forecaster Vilfand gave a forecast for November
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This year the temperature is breaking all records. 2023 became the warmest year in the history of weather observations. On November 1, the air in Moscow warmed up to +15! It is not surprising that nature is perplexed; all its schedules are confused. It got to the point where the trees on Arbat were starting to bloom. Some animals in the zoo decided that spring had come.
The head of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, Roman Vilfand, said that in 2023 September was not just warm, but the hottest for the entire observation period. Moreover, this was observed not only in Russia, but throughout Europe: the average September temperature in Europe differs from long-term values by +2.5 degrees, and this is a very large value
Vilfand named the reasons for the September anomaly: firstly, the increasing content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; secondly, a significant warming of water, first in the Pacific Ocean in the equatorial regions, and then the spread of heat throughout the world’s oceans. “And another unusual effect is associated with a strong decrease in ice cover in Antarctica, we are talking about marine areas,” Vilfand said. – Until now, this has not affected Antarctica. But now climatologists are discussing that such a trend has emerged since 2016. It causes very great concern. According to one hypothesis, perhaps the climate cascades to another level.”
As for October in Moscow, according to a weather expert, it is not very different from “ordinary Octobers”: the temperature was within normal limits. Muscovites had already seen 9 cm of snow cover, and then it suddenly became warmer. “It turns out that Muscovites were either in mid-November due to the weather, then on the last day they rolled back along the “weather rails” to the end of September,” Vilfand said. “And there were such changes all the time.” Here it is appropriate to recall the anecdote about the “average temperature in a hospital”: the average monthly temperature is normal, but at the same time it consists of such extreme episodes.”
A similar situation is predicted for the entire winter period. Not only in Moscow, but also in the European and Asian parts of Russia, the temperature background will generally be around or above normal, but there will be differences: from thaws to noticeable frosts -15… -20.
An actual deviation from the norm in October towards negative values was observed only in the north-west of Russia, while throughout the rest of the territory the values were high. We all noticed that on the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus and in Crimea the velvet season lasted incredibly long (when the water and air temperatures are approximately the same and comfortable for humans). Until October 15-18, the water temperature was above +20!
If we take November, which has just begun, then, according to Vilfand, over the past thirty years the temperature in November has increased. In Moscow, for example, by 0.6 degrees, in St. Petersburg – by 0.8. “An absolutely fantastic situation arose on November 1, when a temperature of +15.8 was recorded in Moscow,” he noted. – Until now, the maximum value was noted in 1934: +12.6. An increase of 3.2 degrees at once is a unique phenomenon!”
The reason for the unprecedented November warming is that air masses moved to the center of the European part of Russia (this is Moscow and other regions of the Central Federal District) from the south – from the north of Africa.
As for holidays, the weather will not be pleasant in almost all regions. Heavy rain is expected in the center of the European part, including in the Kostroma, Kursk, and Bryansk regions. Already on November 3, Crimea will experience real floods from heaven. This is good for replenishing water supplies in reservoirs, but difficult times await residents. In the Rostov region, Krasnodar region, and Adygea, heavy rains are also expected in the coming days. Super difficult weather is predicted in the Altai Republic: snow, rain, and ice… In the Primorsky Territory, a warning about stormy weather has already been issued for November 6 and 7.
Vilfand told what awaits Muscovites in the coming days. Until November 9, the temperature will be 2-3 degrees above normal, and then it will begin to decrease. Today, November 2, after wonderful weather in Moscow, the kind that only happens in early September, the situation began to change: the pressure dropped and it rained. At least the good news is that it’s still not cold outside. Tomorrow, November 3, at night the temperature will reach around 0, during the day +5… +7, which is still 2 degrees above normal. On November 4, the temperature at night was 0… +2, during the day +6… +8, and mostly without precipitation. “We should forget about wet snow for the next 7-8 days,” Vilfand reassured.
On November 5, in the central part of Russia the temperature will again be 7-8 degrees above normal. It will be warm in Moscow – +11… +12 degrees, and in the region the air will warm up to +14. The previous November temperature record is expected to be broken again on this day. But at the same time, alas, it will be cloudy, rainy and windy. On November 6 at night the temperature will be +5… +10, but it will rain again. On November 7, on the first working day, the capital will again be watered from above; +5… +10 is expected at night and during the day.
Newspaper headline:
All the changes and changes
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