Expulsion of Russia from Armenia: “The Americans will occupy the military base in Gyumri”

The policy of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is aimed at squeezing Russia out of the South Caucasus; this line is fully consistent with the policies of the United States, which is systematically and painstakingly working in this region. So says political scientist, member of the presidium of the All-Russian organization “Officers of Russia,” reserve colonel Levon Arzanov.

Pashinyan stated that a Russian base in Armenia is unnecessary in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on October 25. This is not the first such unfriendly demarche from Yerevan, which in recent months has demonstrated a clear change in foreign policy priorities in favor of the United States and the European Union. The statement on the Russian base fits well into the new Armenian course.

The 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri and Erebuni employs several thousand people. Our military has been there in accordance with an intergovernmental agreement since 1992.

In addition to the personnel of the military base, almost 2,000 Russian peacekeepers have been stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh since 2020, according to a trilateral agreement between Moscow, Yerevan and Baku. After the September 2023 military operation, Baku occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and declared the abolition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Yerevan recognized Azerbaijan within the 1991 borders, that is, it agreed that Nagorno-Karabakh belonged to Azerbaijan.

What next steps can Yerevan take regarding the Russian base and what do they mean?

“As sad as it may be,” says political scientist Levon Arzanov, “we see that Russia’s two-hundred-year presence in Armenia is ending.” Armenia was our ally in Transcaucasia. Indeed, our 102nd military base has been located there since the 90s.

In principle, our units were there in Soviet times, when the Transcaucasian Military District existed. And even earlier, in tsarist times, our troops were there. And so, apparently, we are leaving. What can I say? Of course, this is the result of the great, painstaking work of the West to oust us from the South Caucasus. This is a well-known fact: one of the largest US embassies is located in Armenia – more than 2,500 employees. The question is, why in Armenia? Now it is clear.

Pashinyan, of course, was not brought to power by accident. The United States always and everywhere uses its so-called agents of influence. In general, Pashinyan is a worthy student of the first President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who had a brightly Western color and was ready to give up Nagorno-Karabakh even then, in the 90s. Then the leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh rallied and did not allow this to happen. But that’s history.

– What is your forecast regarding our military base?

– As for the presence of our troops in Armenia, then, of course, in the near future, I think, the peacekeepers will be withdrawn. Because the conflict is completely settled. The Karabakh Armenians were defeated, expelled from their territory, and the presence of peacekeepers there today is meaningless. Following the withdrawal of the peacekeepers, the question of the advisability of having the 102nd military base there will immediately be raised.

– The mandate for our troops to stay there, it seems, is valid until 2044?

– Nobody will extend this mandate. All our military bases located on the territory of foreign countries are there at the invitation of these parties. And the receiving party can change the terms of this mandate at any time and ask us to leave this region. I think we will witness this happen in Armenia.

Because nothing can stop this process. The population of Armenia is unlikely to oppose Pashinyan’s course. Despite the fact that he speaks both Russian and English poorly, he is a brilliant speaker in Armenian. This, by the way, allowed him to achieve success in the protest movement when he came to power.

The elections, which took place after the crushing defeat of the Armenians in the 2020 war, were won by Pashinyan. His political opponents say that there is now a split in Armenian society. But, apparently, the mood in society has swung more towards the West, rather than Russia.

– At the same time, we are accused of inaction and non-intervention in the Second Karabakh War of 2020, of the failure of the peacekeeping mission…

– What could Russia do if Pashinyan decided to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan? Here our peacekeepers could no longer provide any assistance to Karabakh. They themselves found themselves in a legal trap.

We sent troops into Nagorno-Karabakh when it was a territory not recognized by anyone – neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan. But this year Pashinyan recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, essentially changing the geopolitical status and the entire political landscape in this region and making us hostage to this situation.

– In addition to the peacekeepers and the 102nd military base, we also have border units of the Russian FSB there, which jointly guard the border between Turkey and Armenia. What awaits them?

– It is quite logical to assume that they too will be withdrawn. Although there is no talk of this yet, most likely this will be done following the withdrawal of the 102nd military base. Yerevan will also demand the withdrawal of our FSB border units. Armenia is moving completely into the Western vector.

Well, and, naturally, a holy place is never empty. I am sure that Americans will move right into this same base in Gyumri, into the same fortress that our ancestors built. The American flag will be raised there, and Armenia will completely become a US protectorate.

As a result, a pro-American Georgia-Armenia tandem is emerging in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is already firmly under the Turks. In general, we have almost no friends left in this region.

– What to do in this situation?

– We must stick to those who are still left with us. Thank God, we still have brotherly Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The only way.

– How will events develop in the near future?

– I think that Armenia will initially withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. This will be followed by the withdrawal of our peacekeepers and the 102nd military base. Well, then our border guards will be removed. After that, the Americans will enter there. Or maybe it will all be a combination.