Experts told whether the mortgage will cease to be preferential

The probability of an increase in the rate on housing loans following the key

Passions boil around preferential mortgages: will the authorities keep a low interest rate on it? The fact is that the Bank of Russia at an unscheduled meeting on August 15 raised the key rate from 8.5% to 12% and made it clear that in September it could do so again. Typically, such a measure causes an increase in interest rates throughout the market, and the threat of liquidation looms over preferential programs. To avoid speculation on this topic, the Ministry of Finance announced that the rate on subsidized mortgages would not be raised. What this decision says and whether the preferential mortgage will be extended in the future, MK found out from experts.

“If you think logically, then perhaps the rate of 12% of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is a temporary phenomenon, and preferential programs were approved until July 30, 2024, and therefore you should not change anything drastically,” says Viktor Zubik, founder of the management company Smarent. Now preferential and family mortgages occupy about 50% of all transactions in the housing lending segment, and if rates are removed or raised, this will greatly affect the entire real estate and construction market, which will negatively affect the country’s economy, the expert emphasized.

Other analysts argue that the whole point is the desire of the authorities not to change the rules of the game for consumers, because preferential programs for many are the only way to find their own homes. “The Ministry of Finance made this decision because otherwise mortgages would become unaffordable for almost all Russians,” says Natalya Milchakova, lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global. – Even today, on average, only 15-20% of Russians have a mortgage loan in Russia, that is, not at all the majority, and even more than half of them received loans under the state-supported mortgage program. If today we cancel preferential mortgages or even raise the minimum rate almost to the level of the key one, this will reduce the issuance of mortgage loans and, as a result, will negatively affect the commissioning of new housing.”

Opinions about how the statement of the Ministry of Finance will affect the market differed. Some argue that we should expect a partial drop in the cost of square meters. “The driver for the real estate market is a market mortgage, and now it will be 2.5% more expensive, so I think we will see a planned and slight price reduction,” says Viktor Zubik. “Especially if the Central Bank rate remains unchanged for more than 2-3 months.” For the primary market, nothing will change much, but rather there will be fewer real estate transactions more expensive than 20 million rubles. It will be more difficult to subsidize the rate at such a price, and it is simply illogical to take an apartment in the primary market at 14-15% in a market mortgage, the expert noted. “It is unlikely that such an initiative will lead to lower housing prices,” Vladimir Kuznetsov, chairman of the All-Russian Trade Union of Mediators, enters into an argument. “Moreover, as can be seen from the current data, prices are only growing: on average, there has been an increase in the cost of housing by 2-5% recently.”

Opinions of specialists also differed regarding the future of preferential mortgages. “From July 1, 2024, preferential mortgages will most likely be canceled, but certain types of preferential mortgage programs will remain for specific social groups — military personnel, IT specialists, farmers,” says Milchakova. Other analysts believe that the authorities have reached a consensus on the importance of subsidized housing programs and will not want to change anything here. “On the current state support programs, the positions of the sectoral and financial authorities have been coordinated,” says Tatyana Boeva, head of the mortgage lending department at the Granel Group of Companies. — Therefore, in the current situation, we do not expect changes in preferential mortgage rates. Although there were statements about a possible increase in the key rate in September, but if it happens, it will be small. At the same time, the main conditions of state support programs should not change.” Forecasts of a possible increase in the key rate are aimed more at maintaining the vector for stabilizing the situation in the financial and foreign exchange markets, the expert is sure. “If preferential rates had been raised, activity on the market would have significantly decreased, and today most mortgage transactions are carried out precisely under preferential programs,” Alexei Novikov, director of the Mortgage Lending Department at Est-a-Tet, continues the conversation. — According to our data, in the second quarter of 2023 in the Moscow region in the mass segment, 37% of mortgage loans were issued under the state program and 32% under family mortgages. The share of transactions under standard mortgage programs was 25%.

A number of experts argue that in the future the authorities will retain preferential mortgages, but will make the conditions for it less attractive. This will allow to cool somewhat overheated prices in the primary market and at least slightly raise the fallen prices for secondary housing. In addition, it is obvious that maintaining subsidized loan programs in the face of an increase in the key rate also means an increase in state treasury spending, and this is an undesirable scenario for the authorities. “Some forecasts suggest that next year we should expect an increase in the rate on preferential mortgages by 0.5-1% in order to reduce budget expenditures,” Kuznetsov said. The expert recalled that President Putin, at a meeting on the development of the construction industry on August 8, 2023, stated that preferential lending secured by housing should be maintained, and this position of the head of state is a certain marker for the federal department, despite the fact that it was announced before the increase Central Bank rates. So a complete rejection of preferential mortgages is unlikely, the interlocutor of MK believes.