Experts still expect GDP decline in 2023
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Russia’s GDP may decline by 1-1.5% in 2023, despite the improvement in key prerequisites, including those related to foreign trade and the impact of budget spending, follows from ACRA’s updated macro forecast (available from Vedomosti). At the same time, economic growth in quarterly terms is possible since April, experts say. In 2024, according to analysts, Russia’s GDP will grow by 0.8–1.8%, and in 2025 by 0.4–1.6%.
Earlier, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov noted that the dynamics of GDP this year will be “definitely positive.” The ministry will present a socio-economic development forecast in April. According to the minister, the document will improve the assessment of GDP, investment and real income. According to the current forecast, in 2023 the economy will decline by 0.8%, in 2024-2025. – will grow by 2.6%. According to the Central Bank, GDP growth this year will be in the range from minus 1% to plus 1%. In January, the IMF unexpectedly improved its forecast for the Russian economy in 2023 from a decline of 2.3% to growth of 0.3%.
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