Housing in search of demand – Newspaper Kommersant No. 48 (7493) of 03/22/2023
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The launch of new projects for the construction of multi-apartment housing in 2022 is estimated at 41.8 million square meters. m – 2% lower than in 2021, follows from the Dom.RF review. In general, experts say, having survived two waves of decline in demand (even taking into account the “warming up” of preferential mortgage programs, it eventually decreased by 20% over the year), the high-rise building market remains quite stable, albeit with a bias towards supply: the volume of unsold housing by 20% higher than the last three years.
Dom.RF presented a detailed overview of the situation in the multi-apartment housing construction market in 2022 – as can be seen from the study, this market was generally quite stable, although it experienced two waves of decline in demand. The volume of output of new projects amounted to 41.8 million square meters at the end of the year. m, which is 2% less than the record figure recorded in 2021 (42.5 million sq. m).
According to Dom.RF, the launch of projects dipped noticeably in the second quarter (to 9.7 million sq. m. vs. 12.8 million sq. m. a year earlier), when “some developers took a wait-and-see attitude amid heightened uncertainty.” In the third quarter, as it adapted to new conditions, the rate of entry of new projects to the market almost caught up with the figures for 2021 (11.7 million sq. m. vs. 11.9 million sq. m.), and in the fourth quarter they exceeded them by 9%, reaching 12 .2 million sq. m (against 11.2 million).
Such dynamics is largely due to the observed uncertainty in terms of demand for housing – its collapse was recorded in the second quarter, when sales of new buildings decreased by one and a half times in annual terms (97 thousand registered equity participation agreements (DDU) against 186 thousand a year earlier). This happened due to the fact that mortgage rates after the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank reached prohibitive levels. In the second half of the year, demand was recovering: in the third quarter – up to 117 thousand DDUs against 145 thousand a year earlier, in the fourth – up to 128 thousand against 199 thousand. In Moscow, it fell by 23% in September and by 54% in October (experts explained this by the consequences of the mobilization and outflow of part of solvent citizens abroad).
As a result, the volume of sales of new buildings, follows from the review, is quite far behind the figures for 2021 – 544 thousand equity participation agreements, which is 20% less than a year earlier. Demand was supported by preferential programs, while the share of sales under market mortgage programs decreased to 9% (against 14% a year earlier), two-thirds of apartments in new buildings were purchased using subsidized loans (a year earlier, the share of such mortgages with state support was estimated at 57%).
Now, according to experts, the housing market is skewed towards supply, since the second quarter of 2022 it has outstripped demand. As a result, the ratio of new project launches to the volume of registered PDUs increased from 120% in 2021 to 148% in 2022 (130% is considered balanced). This is evidenced by the growth in the volume of unsold housing – at the end of the year, the figure is estimated at 67.9 million square meters. m, or 69% of the construction volume (against 61% in 2021). With the exclusion of projects for which sales have not yet been opened, the growth is even more significant – 40.6 million square meters. m, or 41%, which is 20% higher than the average level of 2019-2021 (33.8 million sq. m).
It should be noted that, taking into account the duration of the construction cycle, the existing trends may manifest themselves in a reduction in the volume of commissioning of multi-apartment housing in 2024-2025. At the end of 2022, this figure turned out to be in positive territory (45.5 million sq. m., 4.7% more than in 2021; see Kommersant dated January 27), largely due to high commissioning rates in the first quarter and moderate growth – in the second.
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