Experts worsen forecasts for the ruble

Analysts have begun to revise their expectations regarding the ruble against the dollar against the backdrop of lower oil prices in recent weeks. Tinkoff Investments expects the dollar at 73–75 rubles in the second quarter, and 74–78 rubles by the end of the year, while in their December strategy they predicted an exchange rate of 67–70 rubles/$ in the first half of 2023. Promsvyazbank (PSB) also revised its forecast, raising the average annual rate from 72.2 to 78.5 rubles / $, Denis Popov, chief analyst at PSB, told Vedomosti.

The forecast value of the exchange rate at the PSB at the end of this year was not raised so significantly – from 78.2 to 82 rubles / $, since the bank initially expected a weakening to 80 rubles / $ in the second half of the year, Popov notes. Since the beginning of the year, the national currency has already weakened against the dollar by 10%, on some days the exchange rate exceeded 77 rubles. By the evening of March 21, the ruble had strengthened by 50 kopecks. and traded at the level of 76.6 rubles/$.