Experts from the National Research University Higher School of Economics explained the reasons for the increase in the birth rate in Russia in the summer

The choice of month for the birth of a child in Russia is determined primarily by the level of household income – the higher the family’s welfare, the more often the birth of a child is planned for the summer, researchers from the Higher School of Economics found out. Peak birth rates in Russia occurred in July and August during the period 2000–2022. The results of the study of the factors determining the decisions of families about choosing the month of birth of a child were published in the article “Socio-economic determinants of choosing the month of birth of a child in the Russian Federation: statistical analysis.”

In the article, excerpts from which are given RBC, it is indicated that planning the birth of a child in the summer is economically feasible for a family. For example, a woman can save on buying warm outerwear for pregnant women. In addition, during the summer months, a woman can spend more time outdoors due to favorable weather conditions, and her diet can be varied with seasonal fruits and vegetables.

Despite the fact that July and August became the months with the highest seasonality index of fertility in most regions of Russia, in some regions the peaks of births occurred in March, September and November. The researchers note that similar patterns are observed all over the world: in northern latitudes, the peak birth rate occurs in June, and in more southern regions in October-November.

According to a study by experts from the National Research University Higher School of Economics, factors influencing the seasonality of fertility also include social (holidays, migration, seasonality of marriages), socio-demographic, environmental, and biological (physical activity, nutritional structure). At the same time, experts admit that the choice of month of birth of a child may be determined by personal preferences and economic benefits of future parents.

In addition, more children were given birth in summer in cities than in villages. The head of the State Council commission in the direction of “Social Policy”, Governor of the Novgorod Region Andrei Nikitin, in a conversation with RBC, connected this with the fact that in small settlements, pregnancy is generally less often planned.

According to Rosstat, in 2023 in Russia was born 1.264 million children. This is the lowest figure since 1999, when 1.214 million children were born and set an anti-record for the number of births in recent Russian history. According to service forecasts, by 2027 the birth rate in Russia will decrease to 1140.4 thousand. The figure will begin to grow only in 2028. By the beginning of 2046, Rosstat expects, the country’s population will be 138 million people.

Read more about demographics in Russia in material “Ъ”.