Escalation is inevitable: a political scientist told what awaits Israel in the coming weeks

“Prime Netanyahu is ready to escalate”

Thursday was marked by a new aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. At least 34 rockets were fired from Lebanese territory towards Israel. Most of the missiles were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system. According to CNN, this is the biggest attack since 2006. The cause and possible consequences of the escalation in the region for MK were assessed by political scientist and orientalist Elena Suponina.

– In recent years, aggravations in the Middle East often occur during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. This is paradoxical. In other years, on the contrary, during fasting, Muslims prayed and rested. The last 10 years the tradition has changed, says MK political scientist Elena Suponina. – In many ways, this aggravation is due to the unresolved problem of Palestine and the fact that all international efforts on this issue have reached a dead end. Moreover, another important factor is the internal political situation in Israel, where an extreme right-wing government headed by Netanyahu was formed. An unexpected visit earlier this year by the Israeli Minister of National Security earlier this year to the Temple Mount near the Al-Aqsa Mosque greatly aroused Muslims, but did not immediately lead to an aggravation due to its unexpectedness. However, the actions of the Israeli police the other day, when they dispersed the gathered young Palestinians in the same place, near the Al-Aqsa mosque the other day, inevitably had to lead to protests from the Palestinians.

From Lebanon, the shelling was carried out apparently from the Palestinian refugee camps – I have repeatedly been in such camps in Lebanon and I know very well that the local authorities have poor control over the situation there. To directly blame the radical movement Hamas, whose office is located in Lebanon, or to blame the Lebanese Hezbollah group, in my opinion, is very reckless. Most likely, this shelling was carried out by few controlled forces. Another thing is that the Israeli government very quickly blamed well-known groups. This means that Prime Minister Netanyahu is also ready to escalate. Perhaps, in this aggravation, he sees a way out for himself from the current domestic political situation that has developed in Israel.

In addition, not everyone likes the latest efforts in the region by China aimed at reconciliation between China and Saudi Arabia, there are opponents of this course – the United States and Israel. So the forces that would like to shake up the situation in this region may well take advantage of the current aggravation. It is quite possible to do this through Lebanon, because the interests of both Saudi Arabia and Iran and many other regional states are present there.

– Can the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East somehow affect the Russian-Ukrainian crisis?

– I do not see a direct connection between these events and Israel’s position on the crisis in Ukraine. The Israeli leadership is quite cautious on this score. Netanyahu is well aware of the weight of Russia. The position of the previous Israeli government was more critical of Moscow and its actions in Ukraine.

The situation in southern Lebanon is very dangerous. Representatives of the UN and many international mediators speak about it. Naturally, Israel will respond, the strength of the reaction is now being determined. Many radicals in the Netanyahu government would like Israel to respond harshly, but in any case, new rounds of escalation in the region are inevitable.

– Are there many immigrants from Russia and Ukraine in Israel now? Will the current aggravation affect their future plans?

– The difficult domestic political situation in Israel, where in recent weeks there have been protests against judicial reform that Netanyahu is trying to carry out, the deteriorating economic situation in the country is pushing some repatriates to leave the Jewish state, at least for a while. But many of them traditionally leave for the West. Although there are many cases of returning to Russia – for a banal reason, this is due to the fact that it is difficult for them to find work in Israel.

The situation in the region will be unstable in any case. In what and how serious conflict it will result, we will know literally in the coming days. Escalation is inevitable.