Erdogan’s rival in the presidential elections in Turkey Kilichdaroglu stepped on his heels

It may seem that the presidential elections in Turkey are a distant event, which we still have to live to see. But in fact, the struggle has been going on for a long time and with might and main, and it is becoming more and more interesting to watch it. The main opponents are the current President of the Republic Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

Kılıçdaroğlu was put forward as the single opposition candidate after much debate within the six-party alliance. During the past year, the opposition bloc was postponing the election of its single candidate, and later, when the figure to be put up for election was about to be announced, a terrible earthquake occurred in the country (and it is clear that people then were not up to candidates and political issues). In general, everything did not work out from the very beginning, even on the eve of the announcement of its decision in early March, a conflict arose again in the alliance – the leader of the Good Party left the coalition meeting, refusing to support the candidacy of Kılıçdaroglu. But he was still chosen.

Turkish politicians (even within the opposition) were skeptical about such a decision, considering this candidate to be a rather weak player who is unlikely to be a real competitor to the current President Erdogan. Yes, he has a decent political experience behind him – he has been in the RPP since 2002, since 2010 he has been the permanent leader of this opposition party (at that time, 1246 out of 1250 delegates, a record for the RPP, voted for him), he even ran for the mayor of Istanbul, gaining 36 .8% of the votes. And he was one of the main opponents of the amendments to the Constitution in 2017.

Considered a weak figure, Kılıçdaroğlu, however, showed in a recent Optimar poll that 45.3% of voters would vote for him (a small lead over Erdoğan, who, according to the same poll, won 47.4% of the vote).

It can be argued that public opinion polls often have little to do with the real picture. But no one will argue that it is these statistics that allow us to look in advance at the balance of power and assess the intensity of the upcoming struggle.

Hürriyet columnist Abdulkadir Selvi also noted another curious fact about the findings of sociologists: “Optimar is one of the public opinion companies that I follow regularly. It was one of the companies that correctly predicted the 2014 and 2018 presidential elections, as well as the 2017 referendum.”

It turns out that the assumptions about a possible breakthrough of Kilychdaroglu on May 14 are not at all empty. On top of that, the six-party alliance is probably not just going to drink Turkish tea with a simit bagel. According to the Daily Sabah newspaper, six disparate parties have created an anti-Erdogan alliance. But will it be effective?

“In my opinion, Kilicdaroglu is unlikely to be able to achieve a victory over Erdogan. Moreover, there will also be representatives of various small parties such as “Watan” (“Motherland”), which are not included in the coalition,” says Alexei Obraztsov, a Turkologist and a leading researcher at the HSE Center for Asian and African Studies. – And here the point is not even that Erdogan is good and people like him so much. The fact is that the opposition alliance has made all the mistakes that could be made.

Of course, the oldest Republican Party and Kilichdaroglu are known to the people. Judging by what they write about him, he is quite a worthy candidate. But, firstly, it was put forward late. Secondly, the scheme he proposed, when the winner becomes president, and representatives of those coalition parties that supported him receive the posts of deputy prime ministers (and there are six of these parties) is a rare madhouse.

In addition, the very fact of the unity of the opposition is somewhat arbitrary. It is clear that they all rallied in order to be friends against someone, and this “someone” is Erdogan. But as always happens, after the victory (if it takes place), the division of the won trophies begins. And here nothing remains of the former unity of the opposition. The Turkish voter, no matter how naive and beautiful-hearted he may be, understands everything very well. The opposition proposes an absolutely non-working scheme.”

The expert also drew attention to smaller points that also do not play into the hands of Kılıçdaroğlu: “For example, he speaks a very refined Europeanized Turkish language. As they write in the Turkish press, the inhabitants of the hinterland simply do not understand him. For them, this is too tricky language. And Erdogan, who himself is from the outback, is understandable. The Turks even say that he speaks real Anatolian Turkish.”

In addition, the closer the elections, the tougher the game becomes against the opposition and Kemal Kılıçdaroglu himself. On Sunday, Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) chairman Devlet Bahceli called the CHP leader a “puppet” opposition party candidate. In a written statement, the 75-year-old Bahceli launched into a terrifying tirade: “He is a puppet presidential candidate from tyrants who have fomented hostility towards Turkey and repeatedly threatened violence.”

The politician recalled the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which the Turkish government criticizes for its connection with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is considered terrorist in Turkey and a number of Western countries. Kılıçdaroğlu said in early March that he was planning a visit to the HDP’s headquarters, and the Democratic Party itself formally confirmed its support for Kılıçdaroğlu last week, saying it would not nominate a candidate for the May 14 elections.

The party itself (because of its alleged association with the Kurds) is under threat of lawsuit and closure, but it is still considered a decisive factor in determining the course of the election campaign. She has about 10% support throughout the country, which includes mainly Kurdish voters. And so the HDP’s tacit alliance with the six-party coalition led by Kılıçdaroğlu ignited claims of “open collusion with terrorists.”

According to Turkish experts, there were conditions from the HDP to Kılıçdaroğlu. In fact, it is a demand for greater independence. The list included such items as: open dialogue, positions in ministries if the opposition wins, the removal of trustees from 48 HDP municipalities, and possibly self-government for Kurdish-majority provinces in Turkey.

Kılıçdaroğlu himself referred to “independence and autonomy” during a press briefing, drawing criticism that he was “looking for a legitimate justification for his divisive policies” and that the six parties were “openly committed to such a dangerous path”.

“The Kurdish problem for modern Turkey is quite acute,” explains Alexey Obraztsov. – You can’t even say for sure which problem (Fethullah Gülen or the PKK) is more acute. Both are good. As for the statements about Kılıçdaroglu’s connection with the HDP, this is a common pre-election move to defame the opponent and say that he is leading Turkey to a split. The main thing is to spit, and then let it be washed as you like. This is precisely the hint that the main opposition party is colluding with an apparently pro-Kurdish organization. And this is a big minus in the election campaign.”

As for the views of Kılıçdaroğlu, which go beyond the framework of the country’s internal life, a change of course in the usual sense of this phrase is not expected in the event of an opposition politician’s victory. In international relations, both Erdogan and Kılıçdaroglu generally adhere to a single position. The opposition candidate himself recently stated that if he comes to power, new “tests” in relations, for example, between Russia and Turkey, are unlikely. In his opinion, trust should become the most important factor in the relationship between the two countries: “It is necessary to avoid interference in each other’s internal affairs, and as far as elections are concerned, not to take steps and comments that take one side or another.”

In relation to the special military operation in Ukraine, Kılıçdaroğlu quite predictably stated: “We want to make every effort and use the experience accumulated by the diplomacy of the Republic of Turkey to resolve the conflict.” The Turkish opposition is confident that it will be able to maintain good and balanced relations with Russia if its presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu comes to power. Another important factor is the candidate’s desire to improve relations with Syria. But all this is only preliminary plans: the elections are ahead.