Economists have proposed to place funds from oil and gas revenues on deposits of the Central Bank

The volume of funds of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) can be increased by placing them not in foreign currency, but in rubles and receiving interest from them. This alternative concept of the fiscal rule was presented at the session “Problems of Budget Policy” at the Yasinsky (April) International Scientific Conference at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) by economist Vadim Grishchenko from the Central Bank’s Research and Forecasting Department. Its co-authors were also Grigory Zhirnov from the Higher School of Economics and Vasily Tkachev from MGIMO, writes RBC.

The authors of the report propose to place the funds accumulated by the National Welfare Fund on deposits of the Central Bank in rubles at a percentage equal to the key rate. This will “stabilize macroeconomic parameters and reduce risks to financial stability in the face of changed external conditions.” It is clarified that the interest will be charged until the funds of the NWF, which are not invested in projects or companies, reach 10% of GDP. For comparison, now the liquid part of the NWF is 4.5% of GDP. According to economists, this measure will make it possible to increase the volume of funds of the National Welfare Fund by 5 trillion rubles by 2040. more than when placing in foreign currency.

Foreign exchange interventions under the budget rule have not been carried out since January 2021. According to the model of the rule in force at that time, the Central Bank began interventions on behalf of the Ministry of Finance after the oil price fell below the cut-off price (in 2020 it was $42.4). Currency sales were last held in the spring of 2020 during a time of high volatility in the foreign exchange and commodity markets due to the coronavirus.

The authorities resumed foreign exchange interventions under the budget rule in January 2023. A press release from the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank stated that transactions would be carried out in Chinese yuan in the currency section of the Moscow Exchange with a settlement date of “tomorrow”. Then the ruble reacted to the message about the resumption of the sale of the currency with a slight strengthening against the Chinese currency.

At the end of the year, the Ministry of Finance approved a new structure of the NWF, which consists of the yuan and gold. The maximum share of the Chinese currency is set at 60%, gold – 40%. According to the new mechanism, the nominal amount of basic oil and gas revenues in the NWF should be at the level of 8 trillion rubles. in year. It is assumed that all income in excess of this amount will be directed to reserves.