Does Türkiye remain the main hub for parallel imports?
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Imports may actually have increased, despite official Turkish statistics. The Turkish Ministry of Trade published a report for February. According to documents, supplies to Russia decreased by 33% over the year. The media explained this by increased sanctions control and threats of secondary restrictions against Turkish companies. However, Kommersant FM’s interlocutors doubt that trade turnover is really declining. Why? Ivan Yakunin will tell you.
If you look at the numbers without judgment, the picture is depressing. Previously, exports from Turkey to Russia were $1.1 billion per month. Now – by $670 million. This is not a one-time decline – the data for January shows similar dynamics. In addition, imports are also falling – also by about a third.
Senior partner of the Optimalog company Georgiy Vlastopulo is not surprised. According to him, Turkey has lost its status as the main hub for parallel imports: “Since January, all cross-border payments have been practically blocked, unless we are talking about essential goods and goods that are not on the sanctions lists.
And in principle, Turkish transit is becoming more and more difficult, because Europe and America are doing quite serious work to monitor the flow of goods through third countries, which ultimately go to Russia. Plus, of course, there is significant pressure on financial structures.
Therefore, naturally, trade turnover in terms of Turkish imports will fall.”
Reuters also associates the trend with sanctions. Namely, with the decree of US President Joe Biden, which allowed the introduction of restrictions against foreign banks that help carry out transactions with sanctioned persons from Russia. Deputy Finance Minister Wally Adeyemo, who personally visits new Russian trading partners during foreign tours, said that companies have indeed become more cautious and are constantly asking how they can maintain access to the dollar. However, someone also complained about the pressure. For example, the media write that Turkish businesses are preparing to sue due to constant threats, said local journalist Abdurakhman Kambur-oglu:
“US representatives and consulates working in the department that establishes ties between Turkey and America visited some financial companies in Turkey and urged them not to do business with Russian firms. They were indirectly threatened with sanctions. After the news appeared in the media, these names were removed from the US department website. The companies that were threatened are preparing to take legal action.”
One way or another, in statistics on the volume of exports from Turkey, Russia dropped to eighth place with a share of only 3% – this is to formally quote Turkstat. But there is a nuance. On the department’s website, after listing all trading partners, there is a Confidential country line. Until 2022, exports to this unknown destination were zero. Now it exceeds $100 million a month, and at its peak it reaches $250 million. These amounts must be taken into account, insists Bloomberg Economics Russia economist Alexander Isakov:
“They show the country that accounts for the trade that is not allocated to other countries. In our statistics, for example, this code is indicated as “export direction unknown.” Therefore, we adjust the volumes of bilateral exports, add a confidential country, and secondly, we add to them an abnormal increase in exports to Kazakhstan, Georgia, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan – the so-called proxy trade. In January, we see an increase in exports from Turkey to Kazakhstan and Georgia.
Together they are equal to approximately $300 million and cover the decline in bilateral trade. As a result, the amount of direct and indirect trade continued to grow.”
The US Treasury said that countries can do business with Russia, but it “pales in comparison to the business they do in dollars.” Judging by Turkish statistics, this is true: the top 5 partners include Germany, the USA, Italy, the UK and, unexpectedly, Iraq. By the way, his share also increased over the year.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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