Daniil Medvedev and Andrei Rublev were in the same group for the second year in a row

The draw for the Nitto ATP Finals took place in Turin, the final tournament of the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) starting on Sunday with the participation of the eight strongest players in the world and a prize fund of $15 million. At the preliminary stage, the best Russian tennis players Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev were placed in the same group for the second year in a row , where they were accompanied by the second racket of the world, Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev from Germany.

This year’s Nitto ATP Finals is almost impossible to change the situation at the top of the world rankings at the end of the season. It is already clear that due to the series of failures that befell Carlos Alcaraz during the two-month period after the US Open, Novak Djokovic will almost certainly remain in first place. To do this, the 36-year-old Serb needs to win only one match in Turin, while the Spaniard needs two wins to be guaranteed to retain second position. In turn, Daniil Medvedev completely protected himself from other people’s attacks on his third place. Even his closest pursuer, the final tournament debutant Italian Jannik Sinner, in the best possible scenario, does not have the slightest chance of beating the Russian.

Below, of course, some changes are real. Let’s say, last year’s semi-finalist Andrey Rublev claims to overtake Sinner and become fourth for the first time in his career, but this is only possible if the Russian reaches the final, and the Italian falls into a deep hole in front of his audience. The final eight is Dane Holger Rune, who is theoretically capable of clinging to fifth place. Although for this, the famous German Boris Becker, who once won the final tournaments three times, and recently began coaching the Dane, must not only inspire one hundred percent confidence in his ward, but also magically adapt his game with twisted kicks on the back line to the fairly fast Turin coating.

However, even without obvious rating intrigues, the final ATP tournament, as usual, will be extremely interesting in itself.

After all, the most prestigious title is at stake, and the champion, if he does not lose a single match in the group stage, will receive more than $4.8 million and 1,500 rating points, which in any case will serve as a serious basis for maintaining a high place in the world classification throughout the next season. What can we talk about if even one match in a group brings its winner 200 points and $390 thousand – much more than reaching the final of an entire 250 category tournament. That is, by definition, there cannot be meetings in Turin without motivation.

Those who are worried about Daniil Medvedev (3rd seed) and Andrei Rublev (5th), before the start of the draw, were most interested in the question of whether the two Russians would end up in the same group, as was the case a year ago. And the answer was positive. The Russians found themselves in the Red Group, which was headed by Carlos Alcaraz (2nd), and closed by Alexander Zverev from Germany (7th). The other, White, group consisted of Novak Djokovic (1st), Jannik Sinner (4th), Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas (6th) and Holger Rune (8th).

The factor of competition between Medvedev and Rublev at the preliminary stage can be interpreted in different ways. On the one hand, it will not be easy for the two of them to reach the semifinals. Still, Alcaraz, even despite not being in the best condition, remains an extremely dangerous opponent, and Zverev should not be considered an outsider, if only due to the fact that twice, in 2018 in London and in 2021 in Turin, he took titles at the final tournaments . On the other hand, in this situation, the chance of seeing at least one Russian in the playoffs increases, at least from the point of view of probability theory. A striking example of this is the previous final tournament, during which Medvedev unexpectedly suffered three defeats, but Rublev made it to the semifinals for the first time in three years of playing at the Nitto ATP Finals.

It is always difficult to correctly assess the balance of forces in groups at final tournaments in advance. The level of play of their participants is extremely high, although not all of them are at their peak at the end of the season.

To some extent, the situation can be illustrated by statistics – the balance of victories and defeats of each player with his opponents. So in the White group, the clear favorite with a score of 16:4 is Djokovic, a six-time Nitto ATP Finals champion. Next come Rune (6:2), Tsitsipas (7:15), and the last of the list is Sinner (2:10), who seemed to be demonstrating excellent tennis in October.

In the Red group, only Medvedev has a positive balance (18:11), Alcaraz has a neutral balance (5:5), and Zverev (15:16) and Rublev (5:11) have a negative balance. But judging by the results of the autumn European indoor tournaments, it is Rublev, who reached the semi-finals in Vienna and Paris, who looks most preferable here.

Evgeniy Fedyakov