Astana format of settlement in Syria leaves Kazakhstan

The 20th meeting in the Astana format on the settlement in Syria, which took place on June 20-21, will be the last on the platform of the capital of Kazakhstan. This was stated to journalists on June 21 by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, Kanat Tumysh. Russia, Iran and Turkey are participating in meetings in this format, they have been held since 2017.

Tumysh explained that Syria’s gradual emergence from isolation in the region and its “return to the Arab family” suggests that the format “has done its job.” In May, Syria regained its membership in the Arab League, and earlier resumed diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies.

A joint statement by the Foreign Ministries of Russia, Iran, Turkey and Kazakhstan dated June 21 said that they discussed the preparation of a roadmap to restore relations between Turkey and Syria. It was also noted there that the meeting of the presidents of Turkey, Iran and Russia, dedicated to the Syrian settlement, would take place before the end of the year on Russian territory.

The Astana format was important in terms of international status, but now it no longer looks like a priority for Kazakhstan, Stanislav Pritchin, senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the IMEMO RAS, believes. According to him, this is rather a opportunistic decision of Kazakhstan, unfavorable for Astana in the long term. It has become uncomfortable for the Kazakh authorities to give a platform for reconciliation between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who are unpleasant, albeit to varying degrees, to the West, Kirill Semyonov, an expert at the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs, believes. Most likely, the reason is precisely the irritation with the format from the West, which Kazakhstan either faced or decided to play ahead of the curve, Semyonov believes. He admits that the dialogue in a trilateral format will continue in Russia or in other countries.

Negotiations on the Turkish-Syrian settlement have been going on since the end of 2022. By June 2023, two meetings of intelligence chiefs and defense ministers of Syria and Turkey, as well as one meeting of foreign ministers, had already taken place. The outcome of the talks should be a personal meeting between Presidents Erdogan and Assad. But so far this has been hampered by Syria’s demand to withdraw the Turkish army from the north of the country, where it is under the pretext of fighting the Syrian Kurds.

Separately, the participants of the meeting in Astana considered the situation in Idlib. The statement of the meeting participants refers to the desire to ensure a “sustainable normalization of the situation”, including humanitarian aspects. According to Semenov, the Turkish presence in Idlib is the key problem of the settlement. It is unlikely that Turkey will agree to disarm and disband the Syrian National Army under its control, abandon its military presence and abandon the infrastructure created in the region. “There is going to be a tough bargain here, which at best will lead to the integration of former rebels into the Syrian army,” concludes Semyonov.