APU decided to get close to the fortified “Surovikin line”

According to military expert Yuri Kutov, the enemy returned to his old tactics of “thousands of injections” and, indeed, moved forward in some sectors of the front. However, these local victories are not fundamental yet. But the risks of a breakthrough remain, especially since, against the background of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the largest aviation exercises in the history of NATO, Air Defender-2023, began.

It became clear that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had shifted the direction of the main attack. As expected, the enemy from the Zaorozhye direction aimed at the junction of the Zaporozhye region and the DPR, in the area of ​​​​Vogledar, in the direction of the Donetsk-Mariupol highway.

“I will assume that during yesterday’s day of relative calm near Tokmak, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to maneuver along the front, move to the Gulyai-Polye area,” said Alexander Khodakovsky, deputy head of the National Guard of the DPR, commander of the Vostok battalion.

This maneuver, as well as the rains (our army had reduced the ability to use drones and aircraft) allowed the enemy to take control of the settlements in the area of ​​​​the Vremevsky ledge – Neskuchnoye, Blagodatnoye and Storozhevoye. Now the enemy is fighting for Makarovka and Harvest, which is located eight kilometers south of the village of Velikaya Novosyolka.

However, the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is episodic. This was shown by the battles for Makarovka. Yesterday, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to enter Makarovka, but were driven out from there. Today, using the tactics of mass pressure, they again entered the settlement, but were stopped. And we, in turn, began to massively use aviation in this area – fortunately, the weather finally allowed it to be done.

In the area of ​​the Vremievsky ledge alone, in recent days the enemy has lost another 44 tanks, up to 77 armored fighting vehicles of all types, and up to 60 pieces of other equipment. Losses in manpower are approaching the battalion (from 400 to 600 people).

The enemy plans to reach Mariupol through Staromlinovka. He intends to break through to it not through Novodonetskoye, but along the banks of the Wet Yaly River.

At the same time, the enemy is not stopped by the heights that the Russian army now occupies. Such a rash decision once again shows that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a lot of manpower, which they do not particularly spare.

Analysts of the Neinsider channel recalled that the next line of our defense runs along the line Removka – Staromlynovka – Oktyabrskoye. After them comes the so-called fortified “Surovikin line” – this is Novozlatopol – Orlinskoye – Georgievka – Novopetrikovka.

“So the enemy has many more places where he can “heroically” die without meaning. The front will not collapse, no one moves anywhere without an operational-tactical plan.”

According to military expert, director of the Air Defense Museum Yuri Knutov, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have returned to the old tactic of “thousands of injections.”

“The first touchstone of the Ukrainian offensive ended in failure,” he says. – The enemy decided to attack according to the classical scheme, sent armored vehicles, which were either blown up in minefields to a large extent, or were destroyed by our artillery. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are returning to the tactics of small tactical groups. As a rule, company-sized units attack our positions in different places, using the old tactic of “thousand thrusts”. And if some unit manages to somehow break through our trenches, then reserves are immediately pulled up there, then armored vehicles come into play.

The military expert also recalled that now the enemy has two main priorities:

– Two directions were outlined about a week ago. The first is the Orekhovskoe direction in the Zaporozhye region with access to Tokmak and further to Melitopol. The second is the junction of the DPR and the Zaporozhye regions, followed by moving forward in order to cut off the Donbass from the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. These directions are still the main ones. Artemovsk with its flank battles is also on the agenda.

As for the local successes of the enemy, they, according to the military expert, are not catastrophic for us. Today’s successes are mainly settlements in the “gray zone”, that is, in the neutral zone, which so far do not have a fundamental strategic value.

– The adversary is moving forward – at a slow pace, but it is, however, not everywhere, – said the expert. – Because the number of forces used by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the main directions is very large. You can try to hold back this advance – to transfer additional artillery and armored vehicles from somewhere. But there is a danger that these are distracting blows, and the enemy will try to quickly concentrate forces where we have exposed our areas. Therefore, it is most correct now, of course, to try to hold back the advance, even if there is a retreat. It happens, as a rule, at pre-prepared boundaries.

Meanwhile, assistance can be provided to Kyiv under the guise of NATO exercises Air Defender-2023. In Lithuania, on June 12, episodes of exercises have already unfolded, in which 14 NATO aircraft take part. During the exercise, the military personnel of the Lithuanian Air Force will perform the functions of the joint aviation component of the joint forces.

According to Yuri Knutov, they will not engage in reconnaissance under the guise of exercises (NATO is already conducting reconnaissance and transmitting information to the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), but Air Defender-2023 can distract our forces.

“The exercises were announced when the counteroffensive was still being prepared,” he says. – They were most likely prepared at the Ramstein base in Germany – a meeting was held there under the leadership of General Milli, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. And there they played options for the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the actions of NATO in a given situation. Can the Armed Forces of Ukraine be supported under the guise of these exercises? I think that only in critical situations for Ukraine, if we inflict a crushing defeat on it. NATO considered this option. Therefore, from the point of view of intelligence, the exercises will not be of fundamental importance. But from the point of view of diverting our forces, provocations at the borders and the risk of including NATO aviation in solving the problem of creating a no-fly zone, for example, over Western Ukraine, such a possibility exists. Again, in the event that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are defeated.

Recall that Air Defender-2023 will be held on June 12-23 and will become the largest military deployment exercise in NATO history. They will be attended by up to 10,000 participants from 25 countries on 220 aircraft, which will train under the command of the German Air Force in European airspace.