An abnormally hot summer awaits Russians
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Russians are in for a record hot summer. The upcoming season may become the warmest on record, Izvestia writes. According to forecasters, the air temperature in June will be on average seven degrees above the climate norm. In Moscow, Tver, Kaluga and Kaliningrad it will reach +35 degrees. In addition, record figures are expected in the Far East, the Urals, the North Caucasus and Siberia.
This situation will arise due to the natural phenomenon El Niño, notes Alexander Kislov, head of the department of meteorology and climatology at the Faculty of Geography at Moscow State University: “Indeed, El Niño is developing this year and will reach its maximum value at the beginning of summer. This phenomenon represents the warm stage of the so-called Southern Oscillation. This will be one of the largest El Niños on record.
In the central part of the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean, a temperature anomaly is developing over a large area, and we are talking about deviations of the order of one degree in a positive or negative direction. This average periodicity between El Niño events is approximately three to four years. This very small anomaly is enough to greatly rearrange the atmospheric circulation. Nevertheless, in Europe and Russia, except for the Far East, this anomaly is practically not felt.”
Forecasters interviewed by Kommersant FM are not confident that the coming summer will be record hot. The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia will release a forecast for the period from April to September only in a month, and then it will be probabilistic. However, serious risks for agriculture remain, says climatologist Alexey Kokorin:
“The Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, the Academy of Sciences, and Roshydromet very strongly say that in the south of the European part of Russia there will be a high frequency of heat waves and droughts. Of course, there have always been droughts there, especially in the Lower Volga region. Now they will happen more and more often. In Krasnodar, for example, heat waves over +40 will also be more frequent. Accordingly, people’s lives need to be adapted, meaning healthcare. This is what IGKE is talking about.
In addition, a study by the Higher School of Economics was recently published ranking all Russian regions according to the risks of climate change and the relevance of adaptation measures. There, too, the south of the European part is highlighted from this point of view. It also denotes the Far East, the Arctic, meaning the permafrost zone, and large metropolitan areas. Why large cities? Because a heat wave in the center of Moscow and a heat wave somewhere 100 km from the capital have completely different effects on older people or those who suffer from cardiovascular diseases. It’s one thing to be in nature when the heat is +30 degrees, but it’s another thing when there’s also hot asphalt around you.”
According to Bloomberg, 2024 could be the hottest year on record for the entire planet. Compared to the pre-industrial period, the average temperature will increase by one and a half degrees. Climate change and carbon emissions are causing water volumes to plummet in half the world’s lakes. Scientists fear that in 80 years the Caspian Sea will be 9-18 meters lower than its current level.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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