Alarming ocean temperatures set the stage for devastating natural disasters: “Madness”

An early forecast by a panel of experts calls for an above-average hurricane season that could rival the busiest years on record. A heat map of the North Atlantic Ocean, which shows the hurricane’s core region mostly east of Central America, showed sea surface temperatures several degrees above normal.

In the area where hurricanes form, it is now abnormally warm, with a temperature of about 80 degrees, which will contribute to the formation of a large amount of destructive wind.

These conditions were described by atmospheric sciences professor Benjamin Kirtman as “unprecedented, alarming and beyond abnormal.” Combined with the natural phenomenon El Niño, this will result in an exceptionally high number of storms this hurricane season.

One such expert, Phil Klotzbach, said they are expecting an unusually busy season of 23 storms, including 11 hurricanes — five of which could potentially reach major status, which means Category 3 or higher. In a normal season there are 14 storms, seven of which are hurricanes and three of which are major.

Dr. Klotzbach explained that there is a “substantially higher than average likelihood” that at least one major hurricane will make landfall in the United States and the Caribbean.

The forecast numbers are modest, he said, and there are computer models that indicate more storms are on the way. As climate change warms the planet, heat waves are becoming slower and lasting longer, exacerbating the effects of extreme temperatures, according to research. Heat waves, among other things, reduce economic productivity and increase the risk of wildfires.

In mid-February, southern West Africa was hit unexpectedly early by a record-breaking heat wave. The likelihood of such extreme heat has increased 10-fold due to climate change, according to a new analysis. It also raised the temperature index to about four degrees Celsius higher than it would have been without the additional greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels.

Although only one Hurricane Idalia made landfall in the United States, 20 storms formed, well above average and the fourth highest since records began. Idalia was the strongest Atlantic storm of the season, killing 12 people and causing more than $1 billion in damage.

El Niño is currently weakening, and the possibility of a La Niña during hurricane season could also result in a reversal over the Atlantic.

The region where storms are most likely to form is often referred to as the “tropical Atlantic,” stretching from West Africa to Central America and between Cuba and South America. During La Niña periods, there is a slight increase in the number of hurricanes forming in the western part of this core development zone — closer to the Caribbean than Africa, Klotzbach said. When a storm forms there, it is more likely to make landfall because it is closer to land.

Sea surface temperatures also influence hurricane season. These temperatures have gradually increased over the past century. But in 2023, warming accelerated at such a rate that it alarmed climate scientists. And in the main region where hurricanes form, 2024 has already become the warmest year in the last ten years.

“Crazy,” Kirtman described. — The main development region is now warmer than at any time in history. So this is an anomaly that goes beyond what is acceptable.”

He has little doubt that the severe effects of climate change are being seen, but scientists don’t know exactly why it’s happening so quickly and suddenly. It’s wise to take this forecast with a grain of salt: According to experts, seasonal forecasts for April haven’t always been the most accurate.

Colorado State University’s April forecast for the 2023 hurricane season calls for a slightly below-average storm count for the season, with 13 named storms. Instead, there were 20. Phil Klotzbach admits that the April forecast isn’t always the best, but its accuracy is improving.

The weather can be variable and a lot can change before the official start of the season on June 1st. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its own forecast in late May.