ACRA predicted the exit of about 50 banks in the next year and a half

In the next year and a half, about 50 banks may leave Russia, about this reported Izvestia, citing the head of the ACRA rating agency and former deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Mikhail Sukhov. According to him, the number of credit institutions in the country may approach 300.

“By the end of the year, when the supervisory practice is restored, about a dozen banks will leave the market, by the end of next year – another 30-40 players. It is difficult to predict such stories, but I believe that, for various objective reasons, fifty banks will leave the market in the next year and a half,” Sukhov expects.

He clarified that among the main economic factors for which the number of banks is declining are related to the departure of non-residents and consolidation in the public sector. According to him, they have not yet “turned around” completely, so this year these factors will not have a strong significance.

Now there are about 60 credit organizations operating on the market, which are controlled by foreign capital, Sukhanov said. He expects that by the end of next year, about half of them, that is, 20-30 banks, will leave the Russian market. In particular, Sukhanov referred Raiffeisen and Unicredit to such players. Most likely, they will go through the procedure of voluntary liquidation, the head of ACRA specified.

At the same time, this will not affect consumers very much. According to Sukhanov, the termination of access to cheap funding of foreign banks and their parent companies will lead to an increase in the cost of loans for the corporate sector in the medium term by 1-1.5 percentage points. At the same time, individuals are most likely not to feel such changes.

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