Rosstat lags behind the Central Bank in assessing the needs of citizens

Rosstat lags behind the Central Bank in assessing the needs of citizens



The Central Bank fixes a turn in the estimates of consumer sentiment of citizens. As follows from the September analytical commentary of the regulator on this topic, the consumer sentiment index fell to 97.8 points (minus 0.5 points compared to August). As part of this indicator, the index of expectations (households' assessment of the prospects for financial situation in a year and changes in economic conditions in the country in a year and five years) decreased for the second month in a row (to 109.6 points). At the same time, the growth of the current state index continued, but at a slower pace than in previous months, plus 0.4 percentage points (p.p.) against August (up to 80.1 points). This, however, happened only due to respondents' answers about large purchases; they assessed their personal financial situation worse than a month earlier (see chart).

As income expectations improved slightly and current income estimates rose, households' propensity to consume in September reached its highest level since January 2022. The share of respondents who prefer to spend free money on expensive goods rather than save money increased to 29.6% (up 2.4 points against August). Note that the leading indicators did not show a noticeable increase in consumer spending at the end of the quarter, but, on the contrary, pointed to their decline (see Kommersant of September 13 and 16).

At the same time, based on surveys conducted in the first ten days of August, Rosstat records a rapid increase in consumer expectations in the third quarter of 2022. The consumer confidence index actually returned to the values ​​of the first quarter, amounting to minus 22% against minus 31% in April-June. The index of expected changes in the economic situation during the year increased by 8 p.p. and amounted to minus 14%, which turned out to be its best value since the third quarter of 2021. The reason for this is a decrease in the proportion of respondents who believe that the economic situation in Russia will deteriorate, and an increase in the number of neutral assessments. In August, almost half of the respondents believed that it would not get worse, and 19% believed that the situation in the country would improve against the backdrop of growing favorable estimates of the current time both for large purchases (by 11 p.p., to minus 35%), and and for savings (by 8 p.p., to minus 36%).

Alexey Shapovalov



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