Xi Jinping gathers strength: what to expect from the XX Congress in China
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“On the high seas, you can’t do without a helmsman” – this slogan of the times of the “cultural revolution” best reflects the main essence of the 20th Congress of the CPC. China really goes out into the open sea of history, for which maps with reefs, shoals and other “Bermuda triangles” have not yet been created. The extremely effective system of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” was proclaimed in Beijing as “a new form of human civilization” not without reason. Neither classical capitalism nor classical socialism produced such large-scale results in such a short period of time. Only the synergy of the planned state economy and the market economy with the regulatory role of the ruling party ensured the “Chinese miracle”. The Chinese communists, even if they wanted to, would not be able to subtract the route of the further path either from Marx, or from Lenin or Stalin, not to mention Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping. The journey beyond the horizon of history is unpredictable and dangerous. That is why the China Ark, with a billion and a half people on board, needs an experienced and wise helmsman.
The Chinese Communist Party understood this five years ago. At the 19th Congress in 2017, following the results of the first five-year period of Xi Jinping’s rule under the motto “The Great Revival of the Chinese Nation”, it was decided to revise the rule dictated by Deng Xiaoping to limit the tenure of the highest party post to two terms of 5 years. Now new successes and new challenges increase the need for helmsmen. Contrary to the hissing of Western experts and the forecasts of domestic sinologists, the participants of the 20th Congress will elect Xi Jinping as General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee for the third time. Thus, the decision to abandon the temporary restrictions on the leadership of the party is finally confirmed. Most likely, after the third, a fourth five-year tenure of President Xi on the bridge will follow.
In 2032, when the 22nd CPC Congress is due to take place, Xi Jinping, who was born in 1953, will be “only” 79 years old. Mao Zedong lived for 83 years (1893-1976) and until the last day determined the main directions of the development of the ruling party and influenced important personnel decisions. Deng Xiaoping lived for 93 years (1904-1997) and, even after leaving all official posts after the events on Tiananmen Square, remained the arbiter of the fate of the Middle Kingdom through his nominees in key political positions.
It remains to be seen whether the congress will invent a new title for Xi Jinping beyond the already used “core of the party.” In fact, it is a synonym for the title “leader”. An innovation is also possible—the political vocabulary of the Chinese party language is truly limitless. But even without sophisticated innovations, it is obvious that Xi Jinping has already become the leader of the Communists and the entire Chinese nation, equal to the other two recognized leaders – Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
A real leader must put forward a great goal before his compatriots and lead the advance towards it. Mao unified China and put it on the rails of socialism. Deng took over the leadership of a country that was on the verge of collapse as a result of Mao’s fascination with the heresies of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. He devised a strategy of “reform and opening up” that, when refined, became known as “socialism with Chinese characteristics” and launched China’s fantastically successful race to great power status.
Like his great predecessors, Chairman Xi has set a great goal and is confidently leading the Celestial Empire towards it. Xi Jinping’s long-term plan is called the “Chinese Dream of the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation,” and its implementation by 2049 is designed to ensure China’s superiority in the world. This plan was announced at the very end of 2012, right after the 18th CCP Congress. The stages of the relay race were determined. In 2021, when 100 years have passed since the founding of the Communist Party, all the goals set have been achieved. The main thing is that a middle-income society “Xiaokang” has been created. China completely got rid of poverty – managed to pull out the last 100 million poor people from a deplorable state. The per capita income of the Chinese has doubled. The middle class has grown to 400 million people. China’s GDP has doubled. These gains have been made despite the COVID pandemic and America’s Cold War against China.
At the 20th Congress there will be a lot of talk about these great and lesser successes. But most importantly, we will talk about the next decade. Even at the previous 19th Congress of the CPC, the next stage was outlined – until 2035 “to carry out mainly socialist modernization.” By that time, the per capita income of citizens and the GDP of the state will have to be doubled again. At the same time, the decision to lift the temporary restrictions for the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee was announced for the first time. The logic is clear – the author’s project should be executed by the author, especially since he clearly possesses all the necessary talents of both an architect and a foreman.
The next stage until 2035 for Xi Jinping and the Chinese people led by him will be more difficult than the first (2012-2021). The Cold War is intensifying. America began it in 2018 after the 19th Congress, which not only recorded the first successes of the “Chinese dream”, but also unequivocally emphasized the determination to strengthen the socialist component of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”. Xi Jinping’s words and deeds have since confirmed the worst expectations of Americans. And their expectations from the results of the 20th Congress were reflected in the recently adopted new US National Security Strategy. In it, China is officially named the main adversary.
The covid pandemic remains a very big problem, the virus mutates and forces the introduction of strict quarantine in multi-million cities and entire provinces. Under these conditions, a slowdown in the economy is inevitable and it is necessary to prevent the return of the poor, who have just left this state, to poverty.
We have to solve the problem of 280 million migrants – residents of lagging provinces who are looking for work in highly developed cities and agree to low wages and the lack of social benefits as full-fledged citizens with “hukou”, registration. The 600 million people who have long been freed from poverty, but have not yet reached the level of prosperity of the “middle class”, are patiently waiting for an improvement in their lives. Yes, and the aging of society, unemployment among young people require constant attention and costs.
Despite the obvious improvement in the environment, new painful steps have to be taken towards the transition to “clean” energy sources, to a “green way of production” and a “green way of life”.
In the days of the 20th Congress, we will learn a lot about the real state of affairs in the Celestial Empire. We will also learn specific development parameters for the next 5 and 10 years. But from a few orientation articles by Xi Jinping in party theoretical journals and speeches, from the materials of the recent 7th Plenum of the CPC Central Committee, one can guess the main decisions of the congress. First of all, they will be aimed at continuing the strategy of the “Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The shift in the focus of the economy from export orientation to the domestic market will continue. The slogan of “common prosperity” will take on a new meaning, which provides for a reduction in the gap in income and lifestyle, the pacification of the dictates of monopolists and the growth of support for small and medium businesses, the displacement of alien moral and cultural values. The “hunting for tigers and flies” will continue – the identification and punishment of large and small corrupt officials from among the members of the Communist Party and officials.
Even more attention and funds will be given to strengthening the military power of the Celestial Empire in the face of the encirclement of the country by new hostile blocs and bases. At the same time, Xi Jinping will stick to his favored policy of “strategic patience.” Thanks to her, he pacified Xinjiang and Hong Kong without bloodshed. He clearly hopes to avoid a fratricidal war between the Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Despite all the provocations of Washington, Beijing did not fall into the carefully dug “wolf pit” and, in the spirit of the sage Sun Tzu, does not make rash decisions that are not calculated several moves ahead.
But, perhaps, the most important outcome of the 20th Congress will be to strengthen the onslaught of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” in its peaceful competition with the liberal capitalist economy. In China itself, one can hardly expect restrictions on entrepreneurial spirit and deeds – why kill the goose that lays the golden eggs? At the last congress it was said that the market segment provides 60% of GDP, provides 80% of jobs, more than half of taxes. On the other hand, great and favorable changes can take place in the distribution of national wealth.
For Russia, the decisions of the 20th Congress will be of great importance. The stability and power of our strategic partner are more useful than ever to us in the conditions of hostilities in Ukraine. We need a strong China, and China needs a strong Russia. Temporary difficulties at the fronts caused bewilderment in the Chinese blogosphere, which hoped for a quick victory for the zhandou minzu, the “militant nation,” as Russia is called. But this did not affect the real policy of Beijing, which clearly fulfills all its official and unofficial obligations.
In the high seas of world politics, the ship “China” and the ship “Russia” remain in a single formation. They have similar orientations. They are managed by experienced helmsmen.
Newspaper headline:
On the high seas you can not do without a helmsman
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