World wheat production in 2024 could reach 797.3 million tons
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World wheat production in 2024 could reach 797.3 million tons, according to a new UN FAO report on the state of the world grain market. This is 1% higher than the 2023 figure, but lower than the record of 805.8 million tons in 2022. The list of leaders in crop production, as expected, has not changed (see chart): these are still China (forecast for 2024 – 136.3 million tons), the EU (133 million tons), India (112.4 million tons), Russia ( 93.6 million tons) and the USA (51.5 million tons). Wheat production in Europe will decrease slightly compared to 2023 (134 million tons): the sowing campaign of winter crops in Germany and France was hampered by heavy rains. In the US, by contrast, good rainfall has helped improve crop prospects: the forecast for 2024 is higher than in previous years, when growth was hampered by droughts.
The assessment of the Russian wheat harvest, which was given by the FAO, is traditionally lower than the benchmarks outlined in the Russian Federation itself. For example, the Russian Grain Union assumes that in 2024 it will be possible to collect 95 million tons, however, both internal and external observers agree that an increase from last year’s 92.8 million tons is possible due to continued favorable weather conditions.
According to FAO estimates, grain exports from the Russian Federation this season will increase to 63 million tons, which is 35% higher than the five-year average. Russia expects to export even more – about 65 million tons: this is probably the volume, according to the authorities, that will relieve the domestic market after two consecutive high harvests. Neither the FAO nor the Russian grain associations are currently recording any serious problems with shipments—export rates so far exceed last year’s. Note that this may be due to a reduction in prices by Russian suppliers: according to the Sovekon analytical center, export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein last week fell by 9.5%, to $199–202 per ton – this is the minimum level since August 2020.
The report also suggests a decrease in wheat production in Ukraine: to 20.2 million tons from 22.5 million tons in 2023. The main reason is the consequences of the Russian military operation. Among the positive trends, there is a recovery in the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea: according to FAO estimates, this is now the main channel for the export of agricultural products from the country.
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