Russia’s trade balance fell in January but rose in February

The strengthening of secondary sanctions and the complication of settlements expectedly affected the volume of Russian trade at the beginning of the year – its annual turnover in January decreased by 12.8%, the Federal Customs Service reported on March 14. The trade balance in January decreased compared to December, but in February, as follows from the Central Bank’s balance of payments assessment, the indicator increased again – exports and imports grew, and the former was supported by higher oil prices.

Russian trade turnover in January decreased in annual terms by 12.8% – to $48.7 billion, including exports decreased by 14.2% (to $28.7 billion), and imports – by 10.6% (to $20 billion), the Federal Customs Service reported on March 14. Data indicate a contraction in the trade balance at the beginning of the year – according to the Central Bank’s estimate from the balance of payments, in January it fell to $7.8 billion (against $10.9 billion in December); in February, however, the figure rose to $9.1 billion (this occurred due to export growth outpacing imports and is comparable to the estimate for November, for example). The reduction in trade surplus compared to the end of last year was likely a consequence of increased sanctions restrictions and complications in settlements between Russian companies and foreign counterparties.

From customs data it follows that the share of countries in the Asian region in Russian trade has increased to 74% (at the end of last year – 72%).

The share of mineral products in exports remained comparable (61%, the next group is metals and products made from them with a share of 14.8%). In imports, “machinery, equipment and other goods” accounted for 50.2%, chemical industry products – 19.5%, food products and raw materials for their production – 13%.

Let us recall that at the end of last year, exports decreased by 28.3% – to $425.1 billion, while imports increased by 11.7% – to $285.1 billion. Non-resource non-energy exports decreased by 23%, to $146.3 billion, despite to increase the volume of support: according to the Russian Export Center, the size of foreign trade transactions using the group’s instruments increased year-on-year by 33% – to $17 billion, the volume of allocated financing – by 1.6 times to RUB 587 billion, and the number of applicants for it companies – by almost a quarter.

According to International Energy Agency (IEA), Russian exports of oil and petroleum products in February were lower than in December-January, but higher than the level of November and previous months. Total supplies for the month decreased by 140 thousand b/d, to 7.6 million b/d, while revenues from the sale of energy resources decreased by 1% – to $15.7 billion – the decrease in physical export volumes was partially offset by rising prices (barrel Urals rose in price in February by more than $4, to $66.2, ESPO – by $2.9, to $76.52), discounts also decreased. The IEA also raised its forecast for global oil demand in the first quarter of 2024 to 1.7 million bpd, while the supply estimate, on the contrary, was reduced by 870 thousand bpd – this supports prices.

Russian supplies of petroleum products remained at a comparable level (2.8 million b/d), while crude oil exports, on the contrary, decreased to 4.75 million b/d (the peak occurred in December, when exports reached 5 million b/d). Exports to China increased from 2.4 million b/d to 2.47 million b/d (this figure may be higher – Russian oil equivalent to 350 thousand b/d still does not have a destination port). Supplies to India decreased by 400 thousand b/d, to 1.37 million b/d. The IEA also notes that the number of vessels subject to American sanctions has increased to 41 – we are talking about the so-called shadow tankers for transporting Russian oil. At the same time, Russian ships were actually the only ones left on the transit route in the Red Sea, but the costs of transporting oil from Primorsk to the west coast of India have remained unchanged since mid-November and amounted to about $12 per barrel, the agency notes.

Tatiana Edovina