Work has not recovered from the pandemic – Newspaper Kommersant No. 32 (7477) of 21.02.2023

The level of youth unemployment in states with middle and low incomes of the population, contrary to expectations, does not decrease, follows from the report of the World Bank (WB). In Collapse and Recovery: How COVID-19 Undermined Human Capital and What to Do About It, analysts note that employment rates for people aged 15-24 have rebounded in only a few countries after a sharp drop early in the pandemic. In most poor and developing countries, there are no signs of a quick return to pre-pandemic values, and in some countries (including Bulgaria and Vietnam), the youth employment rate has continued to decline after the removal of the main covid restrictions (see chart).

The WB is also concerned about the slowdown (from minus 40% in the second quarter of 2020 to minus 22% in the first quarter of 2021), but still the continuing decline in wages among young people. Those who entered the labor market during the pandemic, as a rule, agreed to lower salaries than they could receive in “normal” times, and “stuck” in positions that did not correspond to their level of education, the WB notes.

The bank’s analysts believe that the hardships young people have faced during the pandemic will have serious long-term consequences for the global economy (the “scar effect”). People under the age of 25 at the start of the pandemic will make up 90% of the working population by 2050 — the gaps in knowledge left due to distance learning during lockdowns at schools and universities will reduce the future income of workers around the world by $ 21 trillion

In this case, developed countries will suffer significant losses – the crisis of knowledge and experience of young people will affect them to a greater extent (see Kommersant of February 11, 2022). Despite the fact that the employment of young people has been declining in recent years, the number of those who study instead of working is not increasing, the researchers note, which is why the proportion of citizens belonging to the NEET category (Not in Employment, Education or Training) is growing. , education or training) and are effectively out of touch with the labor market. According to WB estimates, today this proportion is already 24% of all young people in the world.

Christina Borovikova