Wired: scientists have modeled the possibility of surviving a nuclear strike

The Wired edition spoke in its material about a recent study on the possibility of survival in the event of the use of nuclear weapons. Scientists asked this question against the background of ongoing discussions of experts about the risks of the Ukrainian conflict crossing a dangerous line.

Dimitris Drikakis, a hydrodynamic scientist at the University of Nicosia in Cyprus, who led the research team, believes that this kind of research raises awareness among the general public that “nuclear explosions are not a joke.”

Together with his colleague Ioannis Kokkinakis, he focused on the question of what will happen to people who take refuge in a shelter 3-10 km from the epicenter.

They simulated the effect of the explosion of a 750-kiloton warhead using a computer. It turned out that in the zone of moderate damage, the concrete structure is able to withstand the impact of supersonic shock waves if the pressure is 1.5-2 kg per 6.5 square centimeters.

However, from the moment of the first outbreak, people will have only 5-10 seconds to take shelter in such a room. Lucky for those who will already be at the time of the explosion in a structure with thick concrete walls and a small number of holes. It is better to run into the farthest corner of the farthest room. If a blast wave breaks into a room, it will toss people and objects around like a storm.

Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress, a staff scientist and nuclear physicist at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey, notes that by hiding in the basement, the worst effects of the explosion can be avoided.

However, the scientists emphasize, the reality is that most people do not live and work in reinforced concrete buildings without windows. Thus, even in the zone of moderate damage, very many will not survive. In the most advantageous position will be those who will be at metro stations deep underground.

It is also worth understanding that most traditional frame houses and brick structures without reinforcement will be destroyed.

Nuclear weapons also release ionizing radiation and heat, followed invariably by radioactive fallout. Their effects on the skin and lungs can have many consequences, including burns, organ damage, and cancer. In this case, the impact range will cover already tens of kilometers from the epicenter. Therefore, even survivors of the shock wave will subsequently begin to die.

So-called low-yield nuclear weapons (5 to 10 kilotons) will also cause massive destruction.