Will Zelensky run for a second term?

On November 6, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky submitted to the Verkhovna Rada laws on extending martial law and general mobilization until February 16, 2024, deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak reported in his Telegram channel. Theoretically, their adoption could prevent the country’s presidential elections, which are scheduled to take place on March 31, 2024. The previous extension of martial law in July 2023 led to the indefinite postponement of parliamentary elections. They were supposed to take place on October 29. A direct ban on holding presidential elections under martial law in Ukraine is contained in the law “On the Legal Regime of Martial Law” and the Electoral Code. In addition, the process of electing the country’s president, according to current laws, must begin three months before the vote. This means that if martial law is extended until February, at a minimum the start of the race will have to be postponed.

At the same time, a number of signals in Ukraine indicate that the issue of presidential elections in March 2024 has not yet been removed from the agenda. Verkhovna Rada deputy from Eurosolidarity (the party of former President Petro Poroshenko) Alexey Goncharenko (included in the list of terrorists and extremists) said on the Espreso TV channel that Vladimir Zelensky has already instructed his office to prepare for them. Later, the New Voice publication, citing sources in the Ukrainian parliament, reported that deputies had developed a draft bill on holding elections in front-line areas. The authenticity of the document was actually confirmed by the deputy head of the committee on the organization of state power from the ruling Servant of the People party, Alina Zagoruiko. According to the project, a special commission will determine whether voting can be held in certain territories. IDPs will be able to vote outside their place of registration. One of the publication’s sources believes that the document will allow “any community to be excluded from elections.”

In addition, on November 3, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba told Sky News that Zelensky was indeed considering the possibility of holding presidential elections in the spring of 2024. “President [Зеленский] considers all the pros and cons,” Kuleba said, making the reservation that holding elections during a period of hostilities is fraught with “unprecedented challenges.” On August 27, Zelensky himself admitted the possibility of holding elections if the Rada supported the corresponding changes to the laws. Another condition was financial support from the West, since in peacetime the organization of voting, according to him, cost $5 billion. “I will not hold elections on credit, and I will not take money from weapons either,” he said. Finally, Zelensky considers it necessary to invite international observers “into the trenches” and make voting accessible to Ukrainian refugees in Europe.

Martial law throughout Ukraine was declared on February 24, 2022. According to an October survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 81% of Ukrainians are against voting in the current conditions, and only 16% support such an idea. The previous presidential elections in Ukraine took place in the spring of 2019. At the same time, the Verkhovna Rada approved the date for their holding, despite the martial law in effect in November 2018 in 10 regions and the “territorial sea of ​​Ukraine”. However, the process of nominating candidates then began after it was completed.

Regarding the possibility of running for a second term, on August 31, 2023, Zelensky announced his intention to run again, since he “will not abandon his country.” Later, in October, he explained that he would run for a second term if the election of the head of state took place before the end of hostilities, and would not go if after.

Moreover, during his last election campaign, he promised voters during the debate with Poroshenko that he would hold the presidency for only one term. “I am running for one term, and in five years there will be another president. I keep my fingers crossed for yours [Порошенко] there was no longer an encirclement in politics,” he said on April 19, 2019. However, even before that, in January 2019, Zelensky said that he was running “for one term to change the system for the sake of the future.”

Aleksey Arestovich, a former adviser to the head of the presidential office who is located outside Ukraine (included in the list of terrorists and extremists), has expressed a desire to become one of Zelensky’s competitors in the elections. In his program, he proposes to adopt the so-called Kissinger formula, according to which Kyiv renounces the fight for lost territories through military means in exchange for joining NATO.

Zelensky would prefer not to hold another presidential election, but this is what the United States wants, political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsev is sure. Washington wants to continue to cooperate with a legitimate president, who would be re-elected there according to conditionally democratic norms, despite the closed opposition parties and media in the country. As a result, under pressure from the United States, Zelensky will most likely agree to hold elections, which will most likely be held in the “classical Belarusian format,” Suzdaltsev believes. It is still difficult to say whether it is beneficial for Russia to allow the President of Ukraine to be re-elected, since this depends on the goals of the military operation.

Then, under martial law, it is impossible to hold presidential elections in Ukraine under the current legislation; they are now preparing the ground to change these norms, says Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian-Political Studies. The final decision on whether to hold a vote, in his opinion, will be made in Washington, where various factors will be weighed beforehand. In addition, Bruter believes that the West is now actively promoting the figure of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, as an alternative to Zelensky, as evidenced, in particular, by his recent interviews and article in The Economist magazine. There he expressed the opinion that Ukrainian troops would not be able to achieve a significant breakthrough, and the situation at the front had “reached a dead end.” At the same time, Zaluzhny cannot come to power at a time if deterioration at the front for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is predicted, says Bruter. Experts don’t see any real chance for Arestovich to win.