Will the dollar reach 70 rubles in September: experts gave an answer

Exchange rate fluctuations are possible in both directions

September is traditionally considered a problem month for the ruble, but the current situation in the economy and the financial market breaks all stereotypes. In any case, it is hardly worth waiting for the weakening of the Russian currency to 70 rubles per dollar. If this happens, then later – not earlier than November-December, experts interviewed by MK believe.

On Thursday, August 25, the market rates of the dollar and the euro were almost equal – 59.82 and 59.62, respectively. Exactly a week ago, the “American” left the 60-61 corridor, where it had been for quite a long time, and updated the August lows. Now, however, he has moved even further away from the government target (goal) of 70 rubles, which is so necessary for domestic exporters and the budget.

And so far there are only hypothetical prerequisites for the weakening of the ruble in September by the required amount. In particular, as it became known, the Ministry of Finance may resume foreign exchange interventions, which means that the budget rule will be resumed. However, no concrete decisions have been made, and the matter has not yet gone further than talks.

“The parameters of the new budget rule are still under discussion,” says Artem Deev, Head of the Analytical Department at AMarkets. – The federal treasury is already suffering from a deficit, and therefore it is extremely important for the state to achieve a full ruble exchange rate – about 70 per dollar. If the Ministry of Finance starts buying foreign currency on the domestic market in September, this should push the ruble down. How much is another question that remains unanswered. Depending on the volume of interventions, this process can be either soft and gradual, or more rapid.”

In September, the exchange rate of the Russian currency will be determined primarily by the ratio of foreign exchange earnings from exporters and the demand for it, mainly for imports. Import volumes are gradually increasing, says Mark Goykhman, chief analyst at TeleTrade. According to him, this is due to several circumstances – the depletion of previously accumulated stocks in trade and production, the formation of new supply chains (instead of those that ceased to operate in previous months), the onset of the autumn business season and the return of people to everyday shopping after the holidays.

“Apparently, the ruble exchange rate will again return to the long-term trend of gradual weakening,” Goykhman argues. – Although, of course, in the foreseeable future, geopolitical and sanctions unpredictability will continue, so fluctuations in both directions are possible. It is unlikely that the dollar will fall below 58-59 rubles in September. Probably, the upper current limit of the exchange rate will be 64-65 rubles per dollar.

According to financial analyst Sergei Drozdov, it is extremely doubtful to make short-term forecasts for the ruble exchange rate now. One can only try to look beyond the horizon of two or three months. Yes, the dollar will certainly reach the mark of 70 rubles, since the Ministry of Finance has set such a goal. But this, according to the expert, will happen closer to the new year. Imports, contributing to the strengthening of the “American”, are now slowly getting better, but mainly at the expense of medium and small enterprises. Big business is too clumsy, sums up Drozdov.