Will China survive until 2049?
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The difficult recovery of the Chinese economy in the post-Covid period has given courage to predictors of the imminent collapse of the Middle Kingdom in the foreseeable future. These people reflect the traditional anti-Chinese sentiments of their political elites, bordering on racism, as well as business circles, which are deeply affected by losses in the competition with “Chinese socialism.”
During the pandemic, the West actively promoted the concept of the instability of China’s political system, which was about to collapse as a result of a clash between the ruling “military” group of Xi Jinping and a certain opposition group of “Komsomol members,” which allegedly provoked an outbreak of Covid in the city of Wuhan. Now the emphasis has shifted to the economy, which is again about to collapse due to the crisis in the real estate market, the aging population, and youth unemployment.
For greater clarity, forecasts of the death of China are superimposed on the real disasters experienced by the West in the recent past. Chief among them is the collapse of the US real estate market, which caused the global financial crisis of 2007–2008.
The nightmare scenarios are mostly produced in the United States, where there is a well-paid network of research centers and experienced China experts. Since the establishment of the communist regime in Beijing in 1949, ethnic Chinese have played a key role in helping their pale-faced bosses navigate the hieroglyphic sea of information about the Middle Kingdom. These people hate Red China for their own reasons and know all the sore spots of their nation.
One of the most vocal “anti-Chinese Chinese” is Gordon Chan. Back in 2001, he published the book “The Coming Collapse of China.” Since then, his series of catastrophic forecasts has not stopped, which have already twice received pride of place among the “10 worst forecasts of the year” published by Foreign Policy magazine. But this does not stop either Professor Chan or the generations of China specialists he has raised. On the contrary, their works are increasingly in demand in the information campaign against Beijing waged by the United States and associated figures from various countries as part of the current Cold War. “We will see the end of China as a political structure within a decade or two, and as an economic structure within a decade.” This forecast by Peter Zeihan is now being actively discussed in Western media and on YouTube. The forecast time frame was not set by chance.
About two decades later, on the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2049, Xi Jinping promised to realize the “Chinese Dream of the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation.” This will be expressed in the creation of “a rich and powerful, democratic and civilized, harmonious and modern socialist state.” Simply put, it will make China the leading state on the planet.
In about a decade, by 2035, which marks the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communists’ Long March under Mao Zedong, socialist modernization should be “basically achieved.” By eliminating poverty in 2020 for 100 million people and doubling the incomes of the rest of the population, the nation will rise to the next level of prosperity. Incomes will double again, and the traditional economy will be replaced by a new, innovative one. This guideline was set in 2017 at the 19th Congress of the CPC. And at the next, XX Congress in 2022, the “New Campaign” was announced as a strategic course for the further movement of the Communist Party and all of China. The determination of the current leadership of the CPC and Xi Jinping personally to continue to pursue the goals of the communists of the 30s and 40s was confirmed by the collective pilgrimage of members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee to Yan’an a few days after the end of the congress.
It was there that the strategic retreat of communist troops led by Mao Zedong ended in 1934–35. It was in the caves of Yan’an that the leader formulated the basic ideas of sinicized Marxism and honed the methods of political struggle. By 1949, they allowed the CCP to unite the recently divided country under its rule and put it on the rails of socialism. The chosen Soviet mobilization model of post-war reconstruction ideally suited Chinese conditions and, with the help of the USSR, made it possible to quickly achieve unprecedented achievements.
According to Hong Kong researchers, the annual growth rate of China’s GDP in the period from 1952 (the beginning of the 1st Five-Year Plan) to 1966 (the beginning of the Cultural Revolution) ranged from 8 to 11 percent. It is no coincidence that China received its own atomic bomb in 1964, during a brief respite from the Great Leap Forward (1958–1960). Even during the troubled times of the “cultural revolution” (1966–1976), the economy survived due to the strength of the supporting structure and generated about 5% annual growth.
The role of “turbocharging” to the planned economy was played by the market economy, which began to be created almost from scratch after Deng Xiaoping came to supreme power (1978). GDP growth then jumped to 11.7% due to the emancipation of peasants driven into “communes”, the creation of small enterprises and the operation of free markets. But steady double-digit growth began to be observed since 1985 (13.4%) after the arrival of capital and technology from abroad. First from the “overseas Chinese” from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia, and then from Japan, the USA, and European countries.
In fact, it was then that the model of parallel development of socialist and capitalist economies, called “reforms and opening up,” began to work. The most important part of the model was the ruling Communist Party, which regulated the pace of reforms, provided tax breaks, allocated “long-term money,” etc. Along with foreign capital came rampant corruption to China. It began to affect the economy – GDP fell to 4.2% in 1989. Supply shortages and the revelry of the nouveau riche began to create tension in society. Since 1985, a wave of student protests swept across the country, culminating in the famous “Tiananmen Square Events” and unrest in other cities in 1989. The Communist Party retained the reins of power only thanks to Deng Xiaoping, who at a critical moment showed all the qualities of a leader of the nation.
Deng Xiaoping, who took responsibility for the bloodshed, resigned from all posts, and the capitalist sector began to shrink. China’s GDP grew by only 3.9% in 1990. The period of “freezing” lasted until 1992, when the pensioner Deng Xiaoping unexpectedly returned to big politics and blessed a new stage of reforms, which, to please skeptics, began to be more often called “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” The influx of foreign capital resumed, Chinese goods filled the markets of solvent countries. GDP in 1992 was a record 14.2%. After this, the symbiosis of the socialist and capitalist economy developed with fluctuations at an average level of 10% per annum, but by 2012 it had fallen to 7.9%. It was at the end of that year that the Communist Party was led by Xi Jinping, and a stage began in the history of the PRC that is now called the “New Era.”
Xi Jinping and his team of like-minded people immediately proposed a strategy for comprehensive problem solving. Just a few days after the 18th CPC Congress, which gave Xi Jinping the powers of head of the ruling party at the end of 2012, he put forward a long-term plan, “The Chinese Dream for the Great Revival of the Chinese Nation.” Its main goal is to turn China into the most powerful state in the world by 2049. It was not for nothing that the next 10 years received the official name “New Era.” Fundamental changes have occurred in the economic strategy – from quantitative to qualitative indicators, from serving foreign markets to the needs of our own population. A systemic fight against corruption unfolded, reaching catastrophic proportions and hindering economic development and maintaining social stability. Realizing the inevitability of strengthening the “containment” of the Celestial Empire and the threat to the sea routes of foreign trade, Beijing began to implement the “One Belt, One Road” initiative along the Eurasian landmass. Strategic cooperation with Russia has reached a new level.
Serious changes have occurred within the ruling party itself, which serves as the same system-forming element of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” as the socialist planned sector and the capitalist market sector. Having grown to nearly 100 million members, the CCP was effectively placed under martial law, with strict discipline and unity of command led by Xi Jinping.
The mobilization of the party and the entire nation turned out to be very timely. The “black swans” of the pandemic and the US Cold War have put the system of “socialism with Chinese characteristics” to a severe test of strength. The stability of the economy was ensured by the socialist sector, which was less affected by Western sanctions and the general drop in demand in foreign markets due to the pandemic. The capitalist sector was provided with immediate assistance in the form of tax cuts, preferential loans, and easier access to raw materials and transport chains. The party regulated economic processes and made strategic decisions in public life, which made it possible to maintain stability. As a result, China was able to survive difficult times with minimal losses and return to an upward trajectory. At the end of 2023, GDP growth of 5.2% was recorded.
Against this background, the prediction of the end of China within one or two decades looks grotesque. The collapse of political and economic structures over the coming decades can indeed be expected, but not in Eurasia, but on completely different continents. China will pass the planned milestones of 2035 and 2049 and continue on the path to its revival and greatness.
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Will China survive until 2049?
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