Why the West is struggling to open a “second front” in Georgia

Recall that the protests in Georgia began after the country’s parliament on March 7 approved in the first reading the draft law “On the transparency of foreign influence.” The rallies that began in the evening of the same day were dispersed by the police at night, but on March 8, the protests flared up with renewed vigor and by night turned into an attempt to storm the parliament. Mass riots were severely suppressed by law enforcement agencies. On the morning of March 9, the ruling party announced the withdrawal of the bill. And today, nevertheless, she put it to the vote, failing its adoption in the “second reading”.

These events have caused a flurry of statements from Russian politicians and experts, clearly demonstrating their complete misunderstanding of Georgia. Moreover, the speakers from the opposition, staying abroad, differed in this matter from the pro-government “guardians” only in the degree of incompetence. All were united by two points: the desire to see disgruntled citizens in any street meeting as “Maidan” and any attempt by the authorities to negotiate with their people as its weakness.

The fugitive Russian opposition called on fellow citizens to be inspired by the Georgian example. The “Guardians”, on the contrary, lamented about the “serious mistake” of the Georgian authorities, who allegedly went on about the opposition, which will now feel its impunity and will certainly arrange a terrible “color revolution” in Georgia.

The main problem of experts is that they remember Georgia only when something happens there. They don’t understand that it doesn’t look like Ukraine at all. And by the way, the “color revolution” was already there – in 2003, when President Shevardnadze acted in much the same way as Yanukovych did later. Comparing the current Georgian authorities with Yanukovych’s team does not hold water.

First, the Georgian authorities showed force by violently dispersing the rally when it turned into riots. Everyone noted the good training of the special forces, which acted professionally and accurately. The protesters were shown that they should not go beyond certain limits. Shevardnadze did nothing at all to protect his power, he did not at least use water cannons on the protesters when they were already breaking into parliament.

Secondly, the Georgian authorities did not retreat at all. They did not give up their intention to pass the law, they simply decided to first better explain its essence to society. Why are they planning to start meetings with the population. And for this intention to establish a direct dialogue with society, they can only be praised.

The Russian political elite is so frightened by the Ukrainian Maidan that its ghosts seem to them everywhere. And the most terrible mistake of any government, in her opinion, is to “give slack”. She didn’t always think so. We remember how Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov helped Saakashvili to overthrow Shevardnadze and Aslan Abashidze, head of Adzharia (this is a perfect illustration of the absolute misunderstanding of what is happening in Georgia).

But in order for the “color coup” to succeed, the weakness of the authorities alone is clearly not enough. Power must demonstrate three main qualities: stupidity, cowardice and senseless cruelty. These three ingredients can be mixed in different proportions. The Ukrainian Maidan began with a visual demonstration to the public on TV of the senseless cruelty of the authorities, who allegedly staged a “brutal beating” of peacefully protesting students. Yes, now we understand that it was a provocation organized by Lyovochkin. But then the inhabitants of Ukraine believed in it!

The height of idiocy also looks like a strange “under-dispersal” of the Maidan, undertaken by Yanukovych on February 18, 2014. Yanukovych was born in the Donbass and from childhood he had to hear such wonderful Russian sayings as “It’s endless, that’s a mare without a tail”, or “He made porridge, so don’t spare butter.” So no, at first the Berkut began a hard acceleration, there were victims. And then the cleaning of the Maidan was unexpectedly interrupted halfway, i.e. demonstrated and cruelty, and cowardice, and stupidity of power in one bottle.

A classic example of the senseless brutality of power is Bloody Sunday. On that day, not only a peaceful procession of workers was shot, but the people’s faith in the “good king-father” was killed. Sometimes the consequences of such actions do not come immediately, and for Nicholas II they came 12 years later – in 1917. Let me remind you that even in the official lists of the dead there were children aged 14-17. There is another wise saying: “As it comes around, it will respond.” The senselessly cruel power becomes alien to the people, and this is the main condition for the success of both the revolution and the color coup. Let me remind the “Guardians” that in tsarist Russia revolutionaries were not only imprisoned, but also hanged, and everyone knows what this led to.

But one can also recall the attempts of the Georgian opposition to overthrow Saakashvili in 2009. Then the authorities made a fundamental decision not to disperse the rallies. All this resulted in many months of senseless sitting of the opposition in tents on the roadway of Rustaveli Avenue. As a result, the “revolution” quietly dissipated by itself.

Apparently, Georgian Dream is betting on such a scenario. Of course, her exit with a scandalous law in the current explosive environment is a mistake. Let’s hope it’s not fatal. But perhaps putting too much pressure on the protesters would be an even bigger mistake. Moreover, these are really “children” – naive young people who do not remember what happened during Saakashvili’s time and simply “want to go to Europe” – that is, to have European salaries and hang out beautifully. They do not understand that if the coup succeeds, Saakashvili’s “nationals” will throw them “cannon fodder” against Russia, as they have already thrown the Ukrainians.

Georgia is a very small country, Georgians actually live as one big family. Everyone is familiar with each other. Its current shadow ruler, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is, of course, an oligarch, but not quite typical of the former USSR. He lives in his homeland, in the village where he was born. He spends money not on buying English football clubs, but on supporting Georgian theaters. By the way, he supported the Russian Theater in Tbilisi for many years at a time when Moscow gave up on him. For years, he paid special scholarships (or pensions) to many outstanding figures of culture, science and sports in Georgia, who in the difficult years after the collapse of the USSR survived only at their expense. In these circumstances, the alienation of the people from power is unlikely to reach the same scale in Georgia as in Ukraine, and this is another reason why direct analogies are inappropriate here.