Why the G20’s position on the conflict in Ukraine has changed

The G20 summit ended in New Delhi on September 10, and the main document of the meeting – the final declaration – was adopted on the evening of September 9. Compared to the declaration adopted in November 2022 in Bali, Indonesia, assessments of the situation in Ukraine have been softened due to the position of India and the global South.

Calling for the restoration of the grain deal, the G20 speaks of the need to supply not only Ukrainian, but also Russian food and fertilizers to world markets. Most of the declaration is devoted to the problems of the global economy, technology development, green transition and reform of international institutions, including the IMF and the World Trade Organization.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on September 10 in New Delhi that the countries of the global South did not allow the “Ukrainization” of the meeting agenda “to the detriment of discussing the pressing challenges of developing countries.” His Indian colleague Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, commenting on criticism of the declaration, succinctly noted that “Bali was Bali, and New Delhi is New Delhi.” “I mean, Bali was a year ago,” the Indian minister told reporters (quoted by Hindu).

The representative of the Russian President (Sherpa) in the G20, Svetlana Lukash, said on September 9 that the collective position of the BRICS countries worked at the summit and “the voice of the global South sounded in full force.” The G20 accepted the African Union as a permanent member of the organization, as previously called for by Russia, India, as well as a number of Western and Asian countries.

The Financial Times notes that the declaration in paragraphs on the Ukrainian issue “was a blow to Western countries” due to the lack of consensus on condemnation of Russia by the countries of the South, despite a year of Western diplomacy with them. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said the G20 “has nothing to be proud of,” thanking Western allies who “tried to include strong language in the text.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the adopted declaration a “success”. US President Joe Biden did not immediately assess the document.

Later, having already arrived in Vietnam on the evening of September 10, Biden, commenting on Kiev’s dissatisfaction with the declaration, said that the document approved in New Delhi reflected the concept of a “just peace” in Ukraine, as it mentioned respect for the territorial integrity of states in accordance with the UN Charter.

The summit’s outcome document notes that the G20, “concerned [боевыми действиями] in Ukraine” and “recalling the discussion in Bali, confirmed national positions and resolutions adopted in the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly [по текущему конфликту на Украине]” The clause on the Ukrainian conflict in the November 2022 declaration began with the words that “most countries condemned [боевые действия] in Ukraine,” with the clarification that “other assessments of the situation and sanctions were also made.” And if the declaration adopted in 2022 in Bali directly spoke about “Russian aggression,” then the declaration adopted in Delhi only spoke about “[боевых действиях] in Ukraine,” and the Russian side was not mentioned not only in a negative context, but was not mentioned at all.

The corresponding paragraph in the September 9 declaration also states that Delhi “had different assessments of the situation” and makes no mention of “condemnation.” “All states must act in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter <...> refrain from the threat of force for the purpose of acquiring territories contrary to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of any state. The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable,” the declaration emphasizes.

The document once again emphasizes the position previously promoted by Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar (Vedomosti wrote about this on August 16, 2023) that “the G20 is the main forum for international economic cooperation, [а не] platform for resolving geopolitical issues.” “[Но] We recognize that these issues may have significant implications for the global economy <...> which complicated the environment, especially [для] developing countries,” the declaration says.

In the context of the Ukrainian conflict, the Black Sea grain deal was also mentioned. While the current agreements were “welcomed” in Bali back then, in a September declaration in Delhi following Russia’s withdrawal from the deal on July 17, G20 members called for “their full, timely and effective implementation to ensure immediate and unhindered supplies of grain, food and fertilizers” from Russia Federation and from Ukraine. But Lavrov said on September 10 in Delhi that the option proposed by the West to connect Rosselkhozbank (RSHB) to SWIFT – one of Moscow’s requirements for renewing the transaction – through a branch in Luxembourg is unrealistic, since this branch does not have a banking license. The Kremlin previously stated that it insists on connecting RSHB directly.

The text of the G20 declaration in Delhi is the result of the strongest pressure from the lobby of India, Africa and the global South, says Natalya Piskunova, associate professor at the Faculty of World Politics of Moscow State University. “This is not a momentary event, but a long-term and lasting trend,” she said. According to Piskunova, the G20’s agreement with India’s reluctance to delve deeper into the Ukrainian conflict is the result of Delhi’s entry onto the world stage as one of the largest economic and demographic players. “This allows Delhi to establish itself as a global peacemaker. India has increased its position through participation in BRICS and has leverage over Europe and the United States. The Indian diaspora plays a huge role – the influence of the Indian lobby in the West is at its peak,” says Piskunova.

The balanced and neutral text of the Delhi declaration is a great success for the difficult diplomacy of India presiding over the G20, says Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia and Indian Ocean region group at IMEMO RAS. Over the course of a year of difficult negotiations, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his minister Jaishankar managed to “settle” and persuade both developing and developed countries. “Obviously, the desire not to anger India, one of the leaders of the developing world, a potential alternative to China, played a role. And for Delhi and the South, security issues play a big role not in the context of a conflict in distant Europe, but in a global one – food security, which is why the thesis about the export of grain and fertilizers not only from Ukraine, but also from Russia came into it,” concluded Kupriyanov.