Why did Recep Tayyip Erdogan win the Turkish elections?

In the second round of the presidential elections in Turkey on May 28, after counting 99.85% of the votes, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gaining 52.16% of the votes, and his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu – 47.84%. In the first round two weeks ago, the incumbent president won 49.5% of the votes, and Kılıçdaroglu – 44.8%.

A notable feature of the presidential race between rounds was the change in rhetoric and political positioning of opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu. If the incumbent President during the campaign continued to focus the attention of voters on his achievements in industry and foreign policy, then his competitor completely changed his campaign headquarters and radically modified his image in two weeks of repeated voting. Kılıçdaroğlu chose a militant style, especially on the issue of refugees.

The former symbol of his campaign, the onion associated with the socio-economic problems in the country, has faded into the background. At one of his rallies, the oppositionist accused Erdogan of deliberately letting millions of refugees into Turkey and promised to send 10 million displaced people out of the country if he became president.

An important event of the election campaign on the eve of the second round was the decision of Sinan Ogan, a candidate from the nationalist Alliance of the Fathers, who dropped out of the presidential race, to support Erdogan on May 22. Ogan argued his decision by the fact that the opposition failed to take a majority in the parliamentary elections, which ran in parallel with the presidential elections on May 14. And without a parliamentary majority, Kılıçdaroğlu will still not be able to govern the state. According to the results of the parliamentary elections, the opposition bloc managed to gain only 35% of the votes, while the ruling alliance – 49.5%.

Ogan’s statement of support for Erdogan caused a flurry of criticism from opposition-minded users in the Turkish segment of social networks.

In particular, he was reminded of his Azerbaijani origin and the fact that he allegedly announced his decision at the request of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who had friendly relations with the Turkish President. They also reminded him that in the period from 1992 to 2000 he worked as a representative of the Turkish Agency for Cooperation and Coordination in Azerbaijan and acquired relevant connections there.

Subsequently, Ogan, in one of the threads on Twitter, categorically rejected the version of Baku’s possible interference in Turkey’s internal affairs, and called the emphasis on his nationality “racist.”

Erdogan’s re-election in the elections is largely due to the aggressive rhetoric of the incumbent president towards his opponents, orientalist Ruslan Suleimanov believes. “Played the effect of propaganda. You need to understand that about 90% of the media in Turkey belong to Erdogan’s inner circle. Through them, the president promoted his agenda to the electorate and actively exploited the threat of a terrorist threat in the country in the event of an opposition victory,” the expert noted.

At the same time, Erdogan was not used to such rhetoric before, continues Iqbal Durre, associate professor at the Moscow State Linguistic University. “He himself came to power on a wave of promises to solve the problem of the Kurds. And it had an effect. Now, on the wave of anti-Kurdish sentiments, he used the fact of cooperation between the opposition and the Kurds against it,” the expert noted.

Turkish society, Dürre continues, always perceives the problem of security and terrorism much more acutely than other issues: “Although Kılıçdaroğlu focused on socio-economic problems before the first round, and then switched to anti-migrant rhetoric, these issues always come to the fore in public opinion. Turkey. In this regard, Erdogan managed to outmaneuver the opposition.”

According to Durre, the fact that Kılıçdaroğlu belongs to a small religious community of Alawites played a role in Erdogan’s victory: “Although it is not customary to talk about it in Turkey, religiosity is an important element of politics for a predominantly Sunni country. Traditionally, about 40% of voters vote on the principle of belonging to an ideology. Erdogan has long advocated the revival of Islam in Turkey, which attracts millions of voters.”

Probably, after the victory of the incumbent president, Turkish politics will begin to “tighten the screws,” Suleymanov believes. “Most likely, some oppositionists will be prosecuted, in particular Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. Last year, a criminal case was opened against him, and an appeal is underway. In order to deprive him of the opportunity to participate in politics, his persecution will continue,” the expert admits.

According to Suleymanov, Erdogan may again initiate the process of amending the current constitution in order to give himself even more powers. At the same time, the problems of socio-economic development will continue to deepen in Turkey, the expert continues.

“During his campaign, Erdogan spoke little about the economy: this issue was very poorly developed in him. And now he has nothing to offer. I believe that subsequently the economic crisis will lead to political instability. With all his broad powers, the positions of the authorities will be rather shaky,” the expert concluded.