What do the ruble and dollar look like in the forecast of the Ministry of Economy

The ruble in the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, based on its logic, will strengthen in the near future – from 76.5 rubles / $ on average in 2023 (which implies an increase in the exchange rate until the end of the year); from 2024 to 2026, it is expected to be more or less stable – at the level of 76.8 rubles / $ (2024) – 78.8 rubles / $ (2026). It should be noted that in the forecast of the Ministry of Economy there is no assumption about the radical liberalization of the capital control regime, introduced in March 2022 after the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation in connection with the start of its military operation in Ukraine. Recall that the president suggested that the Central Bank discuss some correction of this regime. According to Kommersant, it is possible as a limited liberalization in certain areas, but possible measures are also being discussed to limit the conversion of the ruble in transactions for the sale of business of foreign companies in the Russian Federation (including limits on monthly conversion for such transactions). First of all, the authorities are interested in this measure in removing excess volatility in the coming months in the foreign exchange market, and not in limiting the possibility of withdrawing capital from the Russian Federation, which in any case, in relatively rare cases, can be implemented by a “single payment” for a specific transaction.

Dmitry Butrin