Western European military discussed the details of the intervention in Niger

The commanders-in-chief of the armies of the West African states on August 18 in the capital of Ghana, Accra, discussed the logistics and other aspects of the possible deployment of collective armed forces in Niger during an emergency meeting of ECOWAS (unites 15 states of the region), reports the Associated Press (AP). This is the first meeting of the military since last week the organization gave the order to bring the reserve forces of their armies to full readiness. Then the event was attended by the leaders of Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Senegal, as well as the Minister of Foreign Affairs in the overthrown government of Niger, Hassumi Massaudu.

As a result of that meeting, the President of Côte d’Ivoire, Alassane Ouattara, in an interview with Agence France-Presse, said that, as part of the proposed operation in Niger, he was ready to provide a battalion of 850 to 1,100 people to the collective forces. According to AP, more soldiers from Senegal and Benin may take part in a possible invasion. Earlier on August 4, the Nigerian authorities also expressed their readiness to send their armed forces, but the next day the country’s parliament did not approve this initiative and called on the government to “encourage and strengthen political and diplomatic capabilities in order to break the deadlock.”

“The use of force remains a last resort, but if nothing can be achieved peacefully, the valiant forces of West Africa are ready to do their duty,” Abdel-Fatah Musah, ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, said on August 17. According to him, most of the 15 member countries of the organization are ready to participate in a military operation, with the exception of states controlled by the military – Guinea, Cape Verde, Mali and Burkina Faso. The authorities of the last two countries had previously announced that a possible military intervention against Niger would be tantamount to a declaration of war against them.

Against the backdrop of a regional crisis, according to AP, tens of thousands of people from all over Niger are flocking to the capital of the country to enroll in the Volunteers for the Defense of Niger movement. According to one of the founders of the organization, Amsaru Bako, if necessary, volunteers will take part in hostilities, provide medical, technical and engineering assistance to the armed forces of the country.

According to The Military Balance, in 2023, the ground forces of Niger have about 33,000 people.

In addition, military personnel from Western states are still stationed in the country: over 250 Italian, about 1,500 French and about 1,000 American soldiers and officers.

Not all states in the region support the idea of ​​armed intervention by West African states against a neighboring country. At a meeting of the African Union Peace and Security Council on August 14, the ECOWAS invasion plan was not supported. “Recalling our zero tolerance policy for unconstitutional government changes, we have decided not to support a military intervention in Niger because it could lead to more bloodshed and more damage than currently available,” the unnamed diplomat was quoted as saying by Le Monde newspaper. At the same time, earlier the United States and France, on the contrary, joined the decisions of the West African bloc.

The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the preparations for the deployment of ECOWAS reserve forces along the borders of Niger and warned that a possible armed intervention would lead to “destabilization of the situation in the Sahara-Sahel region.”

In addition to the threat of invasion, the ECOWAS countries closed their air and land borders to Niger citizens and halted energy operations. Neighboring Nigeria provides up to 90% of Niger’s energy needs. The sanctions have led to a deterioration in the economic situation in the country, where about 4 million people (out of 25 million) live on humanitarian aid. As the AP reports, due to the closure of the borders, the UN cannot deliver supplies of food and medicine to Niger, and about 30 trucks are stuck at the border in Benin. In addition, the international crisis has led to the activation of cross-border terrorist groups in the region: on August 15, at least 17 Niger soldiers were killed in a jihadist attack near the city of Tillabéri in the west of the country.

Representatives of ECOWAS want to intimidate the current leaders of Niger, so the situation is unfolding with elements of escalation, says Africanist Andrey Esipov. According to the expert, the parties are not yet determined to solve the problem peacefully: “There are too many issues at stake – the uranium deposits of Niger, the Trans-Sahara gas pipeline and the US and French military bases in the country.” At the same time, Esipov continues, even if ECOWAS decides to invade, preparations for the operation will take a lot of time: it is necessary to find means of delivering equipment, solve the problem of transporting ammunition, fuel, water and food. However, time is now playing on ECOWAS, which is why regular emergency meetings are being held, the expert noted: “But without the participation of Nigeria, the most combat-ready state in the region, it will be very difficult to carry out the operation.”

According to Esipov, despite the current regional crisis and difficulties, ECOWAS will remain as a regional structure. “This community is necessary, first of all, for the former colonial powers as a way of organizing African states, a kind of unified fist. Most African countries are not economically self-sufficient and depend on their “donors” – mainly from France and the United States, “the expert concludes.