Western dead end: Baltic countries and Poland threatened to close the border with Belarus

The Baltic countries and Poland intend to completely close the borders with Russia and Belarus. The parties will discuss this issue on August 28 in Warsaw at the level of interior ministers. If the decision is made, the countries intend to hold the closure “in sync”. Earlier, some border crossings have already been closed by Lithuania and Poland. In addition to Minsk, Kaliningrad, geographically sandwiched between the Baltic countries, may also suffer.

Lithuania has already closed some border crossings on the border with Belarus. In particular, from August 18, Shumskas-Losha and Tveryachyus-Vidzy will stop working. Earlier, the same step was taken in Warsaw. Traffic was stopped at the Bobrovniki checkpoint. However, the complete closure of land borders has not yet been seriously discussed.

“At the technical level, a scheme of actions to close the border is being prepared. At the political level, on August 28, a coordination meeting of the heads of the Ministry of Internal Affairs will be held in Warsaw. We will put all the accents on the question of how our synchronized actions should look like,” said the head of the Lithuanian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Agne Bilotaite. The initiative is explained there by the presence of Wagner PMC militants on Belarusian territory.

It is not yet entirely clear in what format the decision to close the borders can be made, but the fact that it is not economically beneficial to either side is a fact.

Despite numerous sanctions and belligerent rhetoric from the Polish leadership and the authorities of the Baltic countries, trade relations with Minsk and Russia continue. In 2022, more than half of Lithuanian companies stopped exporting to Russia, but the number of enterprises exporting goods to Belarus has increased dramatically. It is obvious that much of what was sold by the Lithuanians passed by the Minsk shops – to Russia.

The issue of closing the borders is aggravated by the situation with the Kaliningrad region, which is actually locked between Poland and Lithuania. The supply of the region from Russia occurs in three main directions: ferry deliveries from the ports of St. Petersburg, road deliveries through the territory of Lithuania and rail deliveries through its own territory. If the border with Belarus is closed, then the delivery of goods to the region will be difficult.

Why a potential border closure is tantamount to “shooting yourself in the foot,” MK told Baltnews editor Andrei Starikov.

– The movement between Lithuania and Belarus has been degrading lately. There are big traffic jams at the borders, it’s hard to move there. But for residents of border areas who use border crossings, it will be a colossal blow if the Balts completely close land communication with Belarus.

There is economic activity going on. It is not uncommon for part of the family to live a kilometer apart, there is a state border between them, and these people go back and forth. There are cases when people’s earnings are associated with daily movement and movement.

There were situations when there were no hotels left in Belarus on holidays, because it was the inhabitants of Latvia and Lithuania who massively visited the neighboring country. And taking into account a certain cheapening of the Belarusian ruble against the euro in recent years, Belarus has become a large trading center for the Baltic states. Of course, the authorities of Poland and the Baltic countries do not particularly like such movements: while they scare the residents with the Belarusian KGB, they tell how they had a good time in Belarus.

– What will happen to the Kaliningrad region if the decision is made?

– Previously, Lithuania tried to implement a partial blockade of the Kaliningrad region. The European Commission had to intervene and explain that there should be no blockade of the Russian exclave. Now, without declaring an open war, Lithuania may well take advantage of the current situation and once again revive attempts to blockade the Kaliningrad region.

The Russian exclave is ready for this. Over the past year, work has been done on bugs and diversification of supply channels. Nevertheless, of course, the blockade complicates life for Kaliningraders, complicates logistics. All this is becoming more expensive, so here it remains for us to see how the Lithuanian side behaves.

– How will this decision affect the trade message as a whole?

“Trade goes against the sanctions. Now Latvia is collecting signatures on a voluntary basis to publish a list of companies that continue to work with Russia. There are hundreds of companies.

A gigantic number of legal entities continue to work openly, without any laying or detours, with Russian counterparties. The exact same thing is happening in Lithuania. Naturally, a significant part of this business is not taken into account, so we do not know the volume and scale. No one will openly say that he is trading with Russia in circumvention of sanctions while in Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia.

But the Balts know the Russian market. They know how to interact with the Russians. As well as the Russians know how to work with the Balts. These are decades of well-established connections, contacts, business interests, these are personal acquaintances. All these people, who are even engaged in shuttle trade, know the customs officers very well, they drink together, they are friends with their families. This is a constant communication that lasts for years and decades.

Therefore, of course, what the Poles and Lithuanians do, in the first place, works against their own citizens, their own economies. The border population is, in fact, very depressed and poor. People survived there precisely due to physical access to the Russian market.