VTsIOM survey recorded a decrease in the number of Orthodox Christians in Russia

A recent VTsIOM survey recorded a downward trend in the number of Russians who consider themselves Orthodox Christians. In 2024, there were 66% of them, which is 9% less than in 2017. At the same time, among Orthodox Christians the number of those who observe certain fasts is growing – this was stated by 42% of believers surveyed; just two years ago this figure was noticeably lower. The Russian Orthodox Church believes that the data on the decline in the number of believers “deserves additional verification.” Religious scholars and sociologists tend to attribute the survey results to a “generational shift.”

The All-Russian Center for Public Opinion Research (VTsIOM) timed its research to coincide with the beginning of Lent. Sociologists interviewed 1,600 people; 66% said they consider themselves followers of Orthodoxy, 6% of Islam, 1% each of Buddhism and Protestantism. The options “Catholicism” and “Judaism” received less than 1% of the votes. At the same time, 13% of respondents said that they consider themselves non-believers; 4% called themselves believers, but without a specific denomination, and 3% – “hesitating between faith and unbelief.” Another 5% chose the “other” option, 1% of respondents found it difficult to answer.

Sociologists noted that women are much more likely to consider themselves followers of Orthodoxy (72% of women surveyed versus 58% of men). The older the respondents were, the more often they declared belonging to this confession. Thus, among Russians aged 18–24 years old, 38% consider themselves Orthodox, and in the group of 25–34 years old – already 53%. Among those surveyed 35–44 years old, 69% were, among those 45–59 years old – 70%, and in the category of 60 years and older – 75%.

Let us recall that in 1991, 34% of Russians declared that they belonged to Orthodoxy (data from VTsIOM and FOM). In 2004 – 76.1% (data from ISPI RAS), and in 2014 – 73% (data from the Levada Center, included by the Ministry of Justice in the register of foreign agents). In 2017, 75% of respondents called themselves Orthodox (hereinafter data from VTsIOM). But in 2018 there were already 72%, in 2019 – 70%, in 2020 – 68%, in 2021 – 66%. In 2022 and 2023, a slight increase was recorded to 68% (+2%).

It should be noted that in recent years there has been a decrease in the number of believers who visit churches on major Orthodox holidays. Thus, in 2012, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation reported that more than 2.4 million people came to churches for Orthodox Christmas. In 2014, there were more than 2 million believers in churches, in 2018 – more than 2.5 million, in 2019 – more than 2.6 million people, and in 2020 – 2.3 million people. Data for 2021 and 2022 have not been published; in 2023, the Ministry of Internal Affairs reported 1.3 million people. In January 2024, the official representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Irina Volk, reported that 1.4 million people attended Christmas services.

According to VTsIOM, the number of Orthodox Russians who did not observe a single fast fluctuated between 71–75% from 2018 to 2023, and in 2024 decreased to 56%. The number of those who “usually observe some fasts” has increased significantly, from 12% in 2018 to 29% in 2024. But the number of people observing Lent decreased from 13% in 2018 and 19% in 2022 to 9% in 2024. At the same time, the percentage of respondents who strictly observe all Orthodox fasts changed slightly and amounted to 4% (from 2018 to 2024, this figure fluctuated between 2% and 5%). “In total, today four out of ten Orthodox Russians observe some kind of fast (42%), two years ago the figure was almost two times lower – 24%. This increase in the popularity of fasting among Orthodox Christians may be due to growing interest in religion and spiritual practices,” the study results say.

Associate Professor of the Faculty of Philosophy of Moscow State University, religious scholar Ilya Vevyurko sees several reasons for the reduction in the number of respondents who declared their affiliation with Orthodoxy. First of all, “the generation gap has increased” – and therefore there are fewer people who consider themselves Orthodox “simply by virtue of tradition, family habit.” In addition, young people have a tendency toward a “new sincerity” and “they don’t want to call themselves something they are not,” the scientist says. “Many of those who were baptized in the 1990s due to the “fashion” for religion have cooled towards the church. They stopped seeing authority in its hierarchy, since it did not maintain an independent position in relation to the dominant groups in society, which do not evoke class solidarity among everyone,” argues Mr. Vevyurko. “And since, apart from this authority, nothing tied them to Orthodoxy, they ceased to be identify with him. Other polls show the same thing, showing a drop in the rating of “trust” in the Russian Orthodox Church.”

At the same time, the religious scholar does not exclude the influence of coronavirus restrictions. They “jeopardized” the thesis of the need to attend church in order to become familiar with the Holy Mysteries and celebrate the most important dates of the Christian calendar, the scientist says. “This demoralized many believers and, quite possibly, drove the less stable of them away from the church. Although the percentage of those who stopped attending services turned out to be much lower than some of my colleagues predicted then,” he said. “But the lockdown did not in any way contradict the observance of fasts. Perhaps the trials that began strengthened the will of some people remaining in the church to take the church rules more seriously.”

Sociologist Alexey Firsov also believes that the survey results are related to a “generational shift”: “If older people are inclined to call themselves Orthodox, then some young people will simply call themselves Christians. They are less willing to identify themselves with local cultural phenomena and tend to deal more flexibly with cultural boundaries.” At the same time, Mr. Firsov was surprised by the significant increase in the number of people fasting against the backdrop of a general drop in the percentage of those identifying themselves as Orthodox. “Perhaps the figures were influenced by the respondents’ interpretations of the questions,” the sociologist suggested. “Probably, in the canonical sense, fasting is observed by those who regularly attend church services—there are about 3–5% of them in Russia.” And growth could occur due to those who perceive fasting as a spiritual and health-improving practice. Some citizens, for example, perceive giving up bad habits as a form of fasting.”

“The data on the decrease in the number of people associating themselves with Orthodoxy, in my opinion, deserves additional verification. We don’t see any factors that would explain this change,” Vakhtang Kipshidze, deputy chairman of the Synodal Department of the Russian Orthodox Church for relations between the church and society and the media, told Kommersant. “Under the conditions of the SVO, on the contrary, people are noticeable turning to prayer and faith. The human soul is mobile; a person can fall asleep as an atheist and wake up as a believer.” Mr. Kipshidze treats information about the increase in the number of people wishing to fast “with cautious optimism”: “We can assume that this is the result of an intra-church mission,” he said.

Emilia Gabdullina