VTsIOM recorded a record high level of optimism among Russians

Most Russians look into the new year with unprecedented optimism, although they assess the outgoing year as very difficult, VTsIOM found out. From the coming year 2024, people expect the end of hostilities and a peace agreement with Ukraine, economic recovery, lower prices and the resumption of international trade. The presidential election is also one of the most anticipated events next year. Experts explain this phenomenon by the effect of unfulfilled negative expectations.

53% of Russians surveyed told sociologists that they were seeing off 2023 with a good mood and a sense of optimism – this is 15 percentage points more than at the end of last year (then 38% of respondents had positive expectations), and generally a record figure for the last 17 years , General Director of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov said on Thursday, presenting the results of the traditional pre-New Year survey. The share of pessimists, on the contrary, has decreased over this year from 22% to 11%.

In the coming year, Russians expect, first of all, the end of the special operation in Ukraine (a peace agreement or victory) and the return home of those mobilized – 45% of respondents said this when answering an open question. Another 26% remembered the presidential elections, 13% count on an economic recovery, recovery from the crisis and an increase in living standards.

Valery Fedorov recalled that Russians experienced a similar surge of optimism in 2007 against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic recovery, and in 2017, when another economic crisis ended and the country was heading towards presidential elections. “There was such a rise in society, anticipation of a new beginning – in general, they were positive,” explained Mr. Fedorov.

But sociologists recorded the highest level of pessimism in the crisis year of 2008 (20% of respondents then reported a bad mood), as well as in 2018 (21%) and 2022 (20%). In 2018, Russia had “very good” presidential elections, the World Cup, and then a “very bad” pension reform, from the point of view of the population, listed Valery Fedorov. And 2022 is the beginning of the SVO, sanctions, a surge in inflation, an economic crisis and, in general, a large number of problems. But now one can observe a change in people’s mood, and a very sharp one, the sociologist stated: according to Russians, everything has turned for the better.

It is noteworthy that the feelings from the past year were not so optimistic. 66% of respondents assessed 2023 as a difficult year for the country, and only 26% said that it was generally good. But, although negative assessments prevail over positive ones, in general everything is perceived better than in previous years, the head of VTsIOM noted: 83% of respondents assessed 2022 as a difficult year (14% held the opposite point of view), and in 2020 this figure reached the highest value – 88% (and only 8% considered the year successful). That is, the pandemic had a greater impact on the Russians’ worldview than the SVO, summed up Valery Fedorov.

Political scientist Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva believes that the increase in optimism can be explained by the effect of unfulfilled negative expectations. They were afraid of a crisis, but it didn’t come: yes, prices are rising, but not like an avalanche. They were afraid of a new mobilization, but it was not announced. They were afraid of unemployment and lack of money, but people, on the contrary, had additional money due to mobilization and other payments, plus the demand for labor. “In general, perhaps a certain part of the population has a feeling that everything is still under control, despite previous pessimistic forecasts,” the expert concludes.

The results of research conducted by the Platform for social design center confirm that public consciousness is now in a phase of optimism, Alexey Firsov, founder of the Platform, agrees with his colleagues from VTsIOM. This can be explained by the fact that a kind of existential milestone has been passed, when the level of national risk was assessed as very high, he explains. But the worst did not happen, the spring was released, “people, as they say, exhaled,” and now the future appears to them in a more positive way, the expert argues. True, at the same time, focus groups show that as such, people do not have a clear prospect for this better future, Mr. Firsov stipulates, there is rather a feeling that everything will be fine – a kind of “optimism on credit.” He also draws attention to the fact that the share of optimists identified by sociologists (53%) of the expected events listed by respondents is only close to the end of the war, that is, the basis for optimism is the end of the conflict. But this situation is not very simple, warns Alexey Firsov; if optimism is not confirmed, then we may see a cycle of decline and the effect of disappointed expectations.

Anastasia Kornya