Vladimir Putin may announce his nomination for a new term in November at the international exhibition and forum “Russia”

The start of the informal presidential campaign is scheduled for November and is timed to coincide with the opening of the international exhibition and forum “Russia,” sources close to the presidential administration told Kommersant. According to one possible scenario, Vladimir Putin may publicly announce his candidacy for a new presidential term on this very platform – as part of an event at which all Russian regions will be represented. However, there are other options, and the final decision will only be made by Mr. Putin himself. So far, according to Kommersant’s sources, the “ideological frame” of the campaign looks like this: Russia is a separate civilization, a “family of families” for which traditional values ​​are important, it is attacked by enemies, but thanks to the consolidation of society they will not achieve anything.

Legally, the presidential election campaign will begin from the moment they are appointed by the Federation Council. By law, this decision must be made no earlier than 100 days and no later than 90 days before voting day, which will be March 17, 2024. That is, elections are expected to be scheduled from December 8 to December 18, 2023.

President Vladimir Putin has not yet publicly announced his participation in the elections. Answering a corresponding question at a plenary meeting of the Eastern Economic Forum in September, he promised that he would announce his decision only after the start of the campaign. “In accordance with the law, our parliament must make a decision at the end of the year: when the decision is made, elections are announced, the date is named, then we’ll talk,” Mr. Putin explained.

However, as Kommersant reported, the presidential administration (AP) has already begun to work out various scenarios for the future campaign. One of Kommersant’s knowledgeable interlocutors, close to the AP, says that in a sense, an informal campaign is already underway and part of it are, for example, the president’s working events like the July Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg. The active part of this informal campaign, according to Kommersant’s sources, will start in November.

Let us recall that the “main candidate” for president, as a rule, participates in official campaign events less often than his rivals: the Kremlin believes that by continuing to perform direct official duties, he will be favorably distinguished in the eyes of voters from other candidates involved in the “talking shop.” For example, during the 2018 campaign, Vladimir Putin’s main program speech was the announcement of his message to the Federal Assembly, which was not formally considered a pre-election event. The same strategy is usually used by government candidates in gubernatorial elections.

The choice of November is due to the fact that this month the international exhibition and forum “Russia” will open at VDNKh. “This will be the core event of the entire campaign,” explains a source close to the AP. The exhibition will be held from November 4, 2023 to April 12, 2024, that is, it will “overlap” the presidential campaign in terms of timing. According to the decree of the head of state, the forum is held “in order to demonstrate the most important achievements of the Russian Federation in various sectors of the economy” and “the positive experience of the development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation.” “In fact, these are the achievements of Vladimir Putin,” another Kommersant interlocutor explains the concept of the exhibition.

According to sources, much attention at the forum will be paid to the stands of the regions, designed to show all the diversity of Russia. “Regions will have to organize stands to show that they are the best. It should present exactly what the residents themselves consider to be their achievements. And every visitor to the exhibition should immediately have a desire to go there,” says the source. According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, it is planned to attract a large number of students to the exhibition, and accompanying events will be held in the regions themselves.

In addition, those responsible for the campaign are developing a scenario in which Vladimir Putin could announce his participation in the 2024 elections at one of the exhibition events. “This could be, for example, a large-scale forum of cities, at which all regions will be represented. Then it will sound logical, since this will be a platform representing the whole of Russia,” explains one of Kommersant’s sources, stipulating that this is only one of the options that can be offered to the president, and the final choice will only be made by Mr. Putin himself. According to other working scenarios, such a statement could be made at an event of the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation or at a meeting of the State Council, the interlocutor adds.

On the main page of the exhibition website there is a quote from Vladimir Putin’s message to the Federal Assembly, which he announced in February 2023: “Russia is an open country and at the same time a distinctive civilization. There is no claim to exclusivity or superiority in this statement, but this civilization is ours – that’s what’s important. Our ancestors passed it on to us, and we must preserve it for our descendants and pass it on.” According to one of Kommersant’s sources, the theme of Russia as a civilization will become an important part of the overall “ideological framework” of the campaign. “We are a great country with our own identity, a civilization, we fight for our values, family is most important. The enemies are trying to defeat us, but we are so consolidated that they won’t succeed,” the interlocutor cites the main points. Other sources close to the AP describe them in a similar way. According to them, voters may also be conveyed the idea that Russia is a “family of families” that demonstrates the true values ​​of “philanthropy” and, in fact, is the real Europe.

However, one of the sources notes that the topic of civilization may be incomprehensible to the average voter, but all other concepts will most likely be included in the campaign: “The main ideological line is that Russia is consolidating. And then there are conservative values, that we are a “family of families.” Let us note that all these ideological lines were broadcast in one way or another at the round tables of the Expert Institute of Social Research, and the concept of Russia as a civilization and a “family of families” was included in the course “Fundamentals of Russian Statehood,” which has been taught to first-year students of all university specialties since September of this year .

Let us also add that the presidential campaign will certainly include the topic of a special military operation (SVO), but it will not become the only dominant one. As Kommersant’s sources explain, this is a necessary topic, but it will be discussed “exactly as much as necessary.”

The main message of the presidential campaign should create “positive motivation for joining Putin’s majority,” explains the head of the Civil Society Development Foundation, Konstantin Kostin. Obviously, the NEA is the main context of the 2024 elections, but, in addition to consolidation around the flag and patriotic mobilization, we see a fairly high level of anxiety among the main social groups and volatility in public sentiment, the expert argues. Therefore, in his opinion, the “ideological frame” of the campaign is extremely important, talking about a certain vision of the future, about values ​​and principles. “In plebiscitary elections—and so far the 2024 presidential campaign looks like this—images are important for motivating voters,” the political scientist sums up.

Andrey Vinokurov