Vilfand disappointed those waiting for spring: “March will be winter”

The arrival of climatic spring in Moscow should be expected around March 20-25, and in general, March will be a “winter month,” said the chief weather forecaster of Russia, Roman Vilfand. He also reported what the weather would be like for the long holiday weekend and gave his assessment of numerous “hot summer forecasts.”

“The likelihood that March in Moscow will be warm is very low,” said Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, during a briefing in Izvestia. “Still, you shouldn’t expect that spring will come on March 1, March is a winter month, you need to get used to it once and for all,” he emphasized. The average date for the melting of snow cover in Moscow, which can be considered the main sign of spring, is March 20-25, but most likely it is even the first ten days of April. According to him, spring will arrive in the capital in April.

But these are all distant prospects, and for now Muscovites are more interested in the coming days. Vilfand told us what kind of weather awaits us for the holidays: starting from February 22, the cyclone from the West begins to “elbow and shoulder” slightly push back the powerful anticyclone, and already on February 23, air masses will arrive “not just from the southern waters of the Atlantic, but from the Mediterranean sea ​​and even from northwest Africa (Algeria, Tunisia),” so the air temperature at night will be about 0, and during the day +1+3. If it weren’t for the snow, the temperature would generally reach +10, but “snow cools.” Starting from February 22, the temperature will be 3-4 degrees above normal. In general, on the long holiday weekend, on Defender of the Fatherland Day, the weather seemed to specifically decide to give men “warmth and softness”: according to the climate regime, the weather on these days will correspond to the third ten days of March, that is, it will “run ahead” for a month. Precipitation is expected, but light (rain, light wet snow). The sun will appear quite often. “But it will be squelching under your feet, and you will need to carefully look under your feet, and also look up so that the snow does not slide off the roof onto your head at this temperature,” the weather forecaster warned.

At the same time, on March 8, the weather, on the contrary, will be colder than the climate norm.

The forecaster said that the world experienced the warmest January in the entire history of instrumental observations. Moreover, from June 2023 to December inclusive, all months were the hottest, if we take into account the average global temperature across the globe. Reasons – in addition to the fact that the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is still gradually increasing (although the pace has slowed down a little), the warming of the planet’s climate is also influenced by such a meteorological phenomenon as El Niño – an abnormal increase in water surface temperature in the equatorial part of the Pacific ocean.

However, Russia did not feel the general “global warmth” of January. In the central part of European Russia, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, on the contrary, the average January temperature was 4 degrees below normal. But, at the same time, in Moscow, over thirty years, the temperature in January has increased by 3.2 degrees. The weather expert recalled that this winter the frequency of thaw events and the frequency of temperatures that were below fifteen degrees (for Moscow this is frosty weather) increased significantly, but “there was practically no normal December and January weather.” And precipitation this winter in Moscow was 20% more than normal.

It is still too early to make a flood forecast, and for the south of European Russia it will be issued on March 5-6, and for the rest of the territory – on March 10-12. By this time, the Hydrometeorological Center will have processed all the information accumulated over the winter period. Yesterday, on February 20, the height of snowdrifts in Moscow was 64 cm, and the previous record – 61 cm – was observed back in 1902. That is, indeed, this year the winter was unusually snowy! But the flood will be influenced to a greater extent not even by the height of the snowdrifts, but by the density of the snow, which is especially significant this winter.

Many weather forecasters recently hastened to declare that an abnormally hot summer awaits us. Vilfand was skeptical about such forecasts. According to him, in meteorology there is “the greatest democracy” – every person can speak out what kind of summer they think the summer will be like: super hot, super cold… However, in winter it’s too early to predict what the summer will be like, and those “colleagues” who give such predictions are not familiar with scientific research.

The weather forecaster also refuted the myth that frequent solar flares and increased solar activity somehow affect the weather and human well-being: “Such studies are being carried out, and there is not a single piece of evidence that such an influence exists; Perhaps future studies will show this, but not yet.” He urged suspicious people not to listen to reports that health is worsening due to solar flares.

Vilfand warned that it is premature to change tires on wheels from winter to summer, emphasizing that “March is a winter month.” The weather this winter is especially changeable, and after warming will come cold weather. In order to drive steadily on summer tires, the air temperature must exceed +5+7 degrees, and at night it will be much lower. “Only if you are going to drive your car strictly in the afternoon hours, then you can change, but this is ridiculous,” he noted.