Vedomosti consensus forecast: the Central Bank will raise the key rate to 8%

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at the next meeting, which will be held on July 21, will raise the key rate, analysts polled by Vedomosti unanimously believe. The opinions of experts were divided only regarding the step of the regulator. The majority of analysts – 15 out of 21 – predict a rate increase of 0.5 percentage points from 7.5% to 8%. The opinions of the rest were equally divided: three are waiting for a stronger increase – up to 8.25-8.5%. The other group predicts a symbolic increase of 0.25 percentage points to 7.75%.

At the last meeting on June 9, the regulator left the key rate unchanged for the sixth time in a row. Saving the rate was due to the invariance of the balance of risks for inflation compared to the previous meeting – the Central Bank cited such logic in explanatory press releases. Although the last decision was also expected, but following the press conference, the Bank of Russia gave a signal about the possibility of raising the rate at future meetings. Subsequently, against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the ruble, the Central Bank stepped up its rhetoric, and closer to the date of the meeting, it actually stated in plain text that the rate would inevitably rise.