Column by Oleg Sapozhkov on the nuances of budget planning for the adaptation period

The publication of documents developed by the authorities on regulation.gov.ru forces us to often “conveyor” reading – even at the level of draft government decrees and bills, this is dozens of documents a day. Sometimes they merge into an endless technical fuss, but it also happens vice versa, major processes become visible in the routine – something is happening in Russia. So, in recent weeks, the stream has become visible to the great work of the Ministry of Finance, its services and colleagues in the government to tighten and formalize the state’s “stimulating” spending in the economy (see “Kommersant” dated July 12): as if suddenly it was necessary to bring together data on all subsidies , grants, funds to support SMEs, tax expenditures for its development into a single system – all at once.

Last Tuesday, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin held a meeting “on economic issues”, which, in addition to deputy prime ministers and key ministers responsible for income and expenses, was attended by the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, and the Kremlin’s economic adviser, Maxim Oreshkin. Why they were going to, was not publicly reported in detail – it is unlikely that they would congratulate the head of the Ministry of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov on his birthday and inform each other that inflation in the Russian Federation is low, and social obligations will be fulfilled. Considering the time of the year and the ensuing conversations with the scarcity of the official version, the meeting was about the future budget and its problems.

There is every reason to assume them: a drop in export revenues (see “Kommersant” of July 6 and 14) with an increase in imports and a shift in its structure in favor of final consumption and an already deficit budget in 2023 requires a clear understanding of future spending, which causes a surge in requirements provide the “Electronic budget” system with data about them. The growth of the state incentive for the adaptation of the economy (see “Kommersant” of July 14) shifts the focus precisely to these expenses: they, unlike social, military, etc., are the easiest to reduce, but also most affect the medium-term prospects economy – whether it will be able to replace the same imports with goods of its own production and when (so far, obviously not).

Why do we think that this and the flow of documents are “links in the same chain”? Because literally on Friday, a new document from the same series appeared on regulation: a draft procedure for planning the provision of state programs with extrabudgetary funds. And the macroeconomic bloc of the Ministry of Finance, usually neat to the point of chicanery, in a hurry posted a version with gross errors: the document says that this and that can be considered private money in state programs, “except for the cases specified in subparagraphs “a” and “b” of this paragraph” – and subparagraphs “a” and “b” are not in it. Lost in the bustle, it happens; but it seems that there is still reason for fuss.