US Space Force wants to establish a hotline with the Chinese side

The United States Space Force headquarters is discussing the creation of a hotline between Beijing and Washington to “prevent crises in space.” The head of the department, General Bradley Slotzman, told Reuters about this. The initiative was also covered in the American publication The Hill. “We have to establish a line of communication so that in the event of a crisis we know who to contact,” Slotzman told reporters. The military man added that the creation of a new communication channel was not discussed with the Chinese side and that the final decision will be up to American President Joe Biden and the State Department.

The issue of establishing a special line of communication between Washington and Beijing has been discussed for a relatively long time. The first agreement to create a communication channel between the leaders of the two countries was signed by the parties in 1997. It was supposed to become an analogue of the Washington-Moscow line established in 1963 after the Cuban missile crisis. However, during the incident on Hainan Island (2001), when Chinese and US fighter jets collided, the Chinese side did not answer calls from the US. Later, in 2008, a second agreement was signed, this time at the level of defense ministers. However, at the next crisis moment – the interception of an American drone by the PLA forces in 2016 – the parties did not use this communication channel. In 2021, the White House put forward a new proposal to create a direct line of communication between the heads of the United States and China. There was no answer. Also, the Chinese military ignored calls during 2022–2023, when Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin tried to contact his Chinese counterpart Li Shanfu, including during the sensational incident with a Chinese balloon over US territory in January 2023. In June 2023 Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Xi Jinping is refusing to create a hotline to communicate with Biden.

The United States wants to create for itself the most advantageous negotiating position in which it can put pressure on China, which is why, in parallel with statements about the hotline, it is expanding the presence of its space forces in the Asia-Pacific region, the director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University told Vedomosti HSE Vasily Kashin. “China understands this and therefore avoids proposals to create communication lines,” the expert emphasized. As Kashin explained, Washington is concerned about China’s development in the field of ground-based anti-satellite weapons, including a laser anti-satellite weapons program, as this threatens their space superiority. Slotzman, speaking about the hotline initiative, at the same time confirmed plans to open a US Space Force unit in Japan and said that the participation of “like-minded countries” will be a key factor in successfully containing China and “countering its activity in gray zones.” Previously, similar units were opened in Hawaii and South Korea.

The proposal to establish a hotline between the US and Chinese space forces fits into the general logic of Washington’s actions, says Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He explained that the White House is ready to act “on the brink,” but only if it is possible, in the event of a sharp escalation, to contact the opposite side and “release the brakes.” According to the expert, the presence of a direct communication channel gives the Americans relative freedom of action, as it minimizes the risks of a direct and sharp collision with the enemy.

The United States wants to draw China into the “escalation control” system, believes Alexander Ermakov, a researcher at IMEMO RAS. However, he believes that the Chinese will refuse Washington to establish communication channels, since they do not see any strategic advantages for themselves in their presence. In addition, consent [на организацию горячей линии] in one of the areas, it motivates the States to doubly insist on extending the practice to collisions at sea and in the air, where this will allow them to more comfortably push the boundaries of what is permitted, the expert noted.