Unnatural decline: Russians have become almost half a million less in a year

According to Rosstat, the resident population of the Russian Federation as of June 1, 2022 amounted to 145.1 million people. Since the beginning of the year, the number of residents of our country has decreased by 430.3 thousand people (for the same period in 2021, it decreased by 264.2 thousand people). The reduction figure in the current year (430.3 thousand people) was formed from the natural decline in the population (the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births) by 355.1 thousand people and the migration outflow, which amounted to a little less than 75.3 thousand people.

What is remarkable about all these alarming statistics is not that we have recorded such a significant reduction in the number of Russians. And not even that the natural population decline is so great. Although in reality it is rather an unnatural decline in the population if more people die than are born. But what can you do, if such an official term, you have to use it.

It is noteworthy in the fresh demographic official statistics that such a significant migration outflow of the population was recorded. For the first time in recent years, in January-May, significantly more people left the country than entered. Relatively recently, even with a natural decline in the population, it was only through migrants that it was possible to ensure that the total number of citizens of the country did not decrease. Today, alas, even migrants do not save the situation. The arithmetic is as follows: in January-May 2022, 264.4 thousand people arrived in Russia, and 339.7 thousand people left, that is, there were 75.3 thousand more people.

What suddenly happened in 2022? Because of what the migration inflow was replaced by an outflow, it would seem obvious: an extremely acute geopolitical conflict. But the statistics do not clearly show this. In fact, the migration outflow began to be recorded literally from January 2022. Then, obviously, the situation did not improve for sure. As a result, today we have a serious deterioration in the demographic situation, both due to a very large natural population decline, and because of the growing migration outflow.

All this is completely inconsistent with the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025, which was approved by the Presidential Decree of October 31, 2018. According to this document, the main source of replenishing the population of the Russian Federation and providing the national economy with labor resources should remain its natural reproduction, while migration policy is only an auxiliary means for solving demographic and related economic problems. Today, however, as the above figures testify, migration outflow is indeed an auxiliary means, only not in solving demographic problems, but in exacerbating them.

The topic of “what to do” to solve these problems is very extensive, not for the scope of a small article. I will single out only one area in which they are clearly underperforming when they are trying to do something to improve the demographic situation. Moreover, this point concerns both the solution of the problem of natural population loss, and the solution of the problem of an increasingly significant migration outflow of the population.

And then after all, they are trying to solve demographic problems in our country – primarily through an increase in the birth rate. Directly so, you will agree …

So, based on the results of the recent St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, it was decided to develop a set of measures aimed at increasing the birth rate and supporting families with children, including, among other things, appropriate measures in the field of healthcare, education, housing, increasing the income level of such families, etc. Correct measures? Undoubtedly. And yet, judging by what is happening, the point here is not only the consequences of demographic pits and the pandemic. The point is that a lot depends on the desire and ability of people to plan their lives. VTsIOM recently published a survey on this topic, and in 2012 it did the same, so it is possible to compare how the answers of respondents have changed over the past 10 years.

In 2012, 61% of respondents answered that they either plan their lives several years in advance (18%) or plan it several months ahead (43%). In 2022, there were already only 53% of them in total (24% – planned their lives for several years ahead, 29% – for several months ahead). Those who did not make plans for life became clearly more in 2022 compared to 2012. Over the past 10 years, the situation with life planning for the future has not improved, but worsened. This is an unpleasant fact that must be taken into account when the state takes any measures to improve the demographic situation.

So far, unfortunately, they don’t think much about it. Everything is traditional. Demographic problem? We need to give more money to stimulate the birth rate. Are you still giving birth badly? We need to give more money. Add more to health care, education, housing… I repeat: everything that the state does in this regard must be done, of course. Moreover, more money could be given. But if it is obvious (which is eloquently evidenced by official statistics) that the situation is getting worse, then it is necessary to find out why fewer people are ready to plan their future? Why are more and more people living only for today?

By the way, this is a good question for ongoing sociological research, but for some reason such questions are not raised for deepening. And you can guess why. Because the answers, their dynamics may not please the customers of such surveys at all. But then we have to decide whether we recognize the problem and try to get to the bottom of the truth, or we try to avoid it.

According to the results of the mentioned June 2022 VTsIOM survey, another interesting detail was revealed. The largest share of those who answered that they are not making plans because “the situation in the country is unstable” – 35% – was among people aged 18–24. Agree that here, too, the connection with the demographic problem is quite obvious. If young people do not understand what to expect from tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, they are unlikely to hasten to “produce children”.

The fact that the migration inflow has recently become negative is not surprising in a situation where the proportion of people who are inclined to plan their lives for the future is decreasing. So everything is normal, but not normal. Someone will say: what’s the problem? Well, fewer will be born, more will die, more will also leave the country, but those who remain will have more resources. But the experience of successful development of countries suggests that population growth closely accompanies development. Yes, there are problems. Take, for example, the same problem of population aging. However, people and human capital are the wealth of the country. And if this wealth becomes less, the country becomes poorer. That is why the demographic situation is so important, which today, judging by the official data of Rosstat, is getting worse. Russia is not the richest country anyway – if we take not natural resources, but the standard of living of the population. Losing almost half a million citizens a year is an unaffordable luxury for us!