“United Russia” on June 9 plans to nominate Sergei Sobyanin for the post of mayor of Moscow

The Moscow conference of United Russia on June 9 will nominate Sergei Sobyanin as a candidate for the election of the head of the capital. This was reported to Vedomosti by two sources in the party. Before that, on June 7, the Moscow City Duma should adopt a resolution on the appointment of elections in the capital, said Alexei Shaposhnikov, speaker of the capital’s parliament.

Sobyanin is the current mayor of the capital, and for him this will be the third election campaign in Moscow (see sidebar about the political experience of all candidates). In October 2010, he moved from the post of Deputy Prime Minister of the head of the government apparatus of Vladimir Putin to the chair of the capital’s mayor after the early resignation (due to loss of confidence) of Mayor Yuri Luzhkov. At the same time, both in 2013 (after the return of direct voting) and in 2018, Sobyanin participated in the elections as an independent candidate.

The fact that the upcoming elections are actually devoid of intrigue, say experts and the results of opinion polls. The report of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications (APEC) “Moscow Mayoral Elections – 2023: Agenda, Starting Positions of Potential Candidates, Situation in the Districts” notes “patriotic consolidation” before the start of the campaign. It is expressed in a high level of support for the authorities.

The report, seen by Vedomosti, cites data from a Russian Field survey, according to which 40% of respondents are “definitely satisfied”, and 42% rather “satisfied” with the state of affairs in the city. Experts also point to a low level of anxiety in the city, including on social and security issues (the survey was conducted on May 12–13, 2023).

Almost 74% of those who intended to participate in the elections declared their readiness to vote for Sobyanin in the mayoral elections. The report notes that the mayor has a low anti-rating for the head of the region, who has been in office for more than 12 years (6.3% of those who intend to participate in the elections). The report notes that Sobyanin’s nomination from United Russia is “logical” because it will “strengthen the position of the mayor of Moscow thanks to the agenda promoted by the party.”

Moscow is important to parties in the context of preparations for the presidential elections in 2024, as well as the second most important regional elections in 2024 – to the Moscow City Duma. Sobyanin’s participation and his nomination from United Russia may help attract a wider range of voters to the “orbit of influence of power on the eve of the presidential elections,” APEC believes.

For now, the parliamentary opposition is rather trying not to expand support, but to mobilize the core electorate on the eve of the campaign. APEC experts remind that Sobyanin had experience of participating in difficult elections – for example, in the 2013 mayoral elections in Moscow. In addition, in 2021, Sobyanin headed the Moscow list of United Russia and in the elections to the State Duma.

APEC experts included the construction of transport and expansion of social infrastructure, housing construction, job creation and “new industrialization”, as well as urban improvement, on the agenda of the current mayor.

Sobyanin’s electorate is wider than the electorate of United Russia in Moscow, notes APEC CEO Dmitry Orlov: “Despite his nomination from the party, this ratio will not change significantly. However, during the period of the special operation and other threats, the authorities need to consolidate, and United Russia in Moscow needs a more prominent political role.”

“Given the deployment of the campaign, Sobyanin’s result will most likely exceed 70%,” says Orlov. – Support for other candidates is niche in nature. Their result will be largely below the level of national support for the parties they represent.”

For example, the nomination of the Moscow City Duma deputy from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the grandson of the party leader Leonid Zyuganov, will lead to the most inertial campaign on the part of the Communists, APEC believes. The head of the Moscow branch of the party, State Duma deputy Dmitry Gusev, will go to the polls from A Just Russia. In Moscow, the level of support for the party is limited, which will also affect the candidate’s results, the report says.

The Liberal Democratic Party plans to nominate Vice Speaker of the State Duma Boris Chernyshov for the elections. But the LDPR has a high anti-rating of the party in the capital, the APEC points out.

The New People will nominate vice speaker Vladislav Davankov, but a party that counts on a liberal electorate could face a noticeable level of demoralization of such voters. Yabloko (represented in the Moscow City Duma) discussed the nomination of city parliament deputies Sergei Mitrokhin or Maxim Kruglov: experts note that the party has a stable electoral core, but at the same time a high anti-rating among Muscovites.

Other experts also believe that Sobyanin will have no problems. “There are no strong and bright candidates. And besides, under the conditions of the special operation, a significant part of the opposition-minded electorate is demoralized, which works to the benefit of the authorities. In addition, people understand that in the current conditions nothing better can be obtained,” said political scientist Alexander Kynev. The opposition is unlikely to conduct large-scale campaigns in the city, rather it will be such a reminder of itself for opposition candidates, he adds. “The campaign for the election of the mayor will be modest, “homely”, but “resilient”, as the situation requires,” added political analyst Vitaly Ivanov.