Unexpected turn in the war in Gaza: Hamas prepares for a new offensive against Israel

Hamas fighters have returned to northern Gaza, where they are mobilizing against Israeli forces and restoring governance, aid workers, Gazans, analysts and Israeli officials say.

Elsewhere in Gaza, the Hamas administration and police maintain firm control of the south, where most of the population is concentrated, although civil order is breaking down in the central areas, The Guardian writes.

The apparent resurgence of Hamas in areas captured and cleared by Israeli forces during a nearly four-month offensive highlights the difficulties Benjamin Netanyahu faces in delivering on his pledge to “crush” the militant group, The Guardian writes.

Eyal Khulat, who was head of Israel’s National Security Council until January 2023, admits: “Unfortunately, we are increasingly hearing about renewed insurgency in both central and northern Gaza… We are increasingly hearing that Hamas is policing the north of Gaza and runs a business, and this is a very bad result.”

Michael Milstein of the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv-based think tank, said Hamas had regained control of parts of Gaza that the Israel Defense Forces seized after bloody fighting last year. This included much of the devastated northern zone, including the Shaati camp, the Jabaliya, Shejaiya refugee camps and Gaza City.

Milstein said: “Hamas controls these areas. There is no chaos or vacuum here, because it is the workers of the Gaza municipality or the civil defense forces, which are actually part of Hamas, who maintain public order. Hamas still exists. Hamas survived. The IDF’s version is that Hamas’s basic military structure was destroyed in northern Gaza… This only works with a conventional army, but not for a flexible guerrilla operation like Hamas. We already see individuals as snipers, setting booby traps and so on.”

Hamas includes a political wing and armed forces, as well as a vast network of charities and civic associations. The militant movement won parliamentary elections in Palestine in 2006 and seized full military control of Gaza in 2007 after a power struggle, The Guardian recalls. Since then, Hamas has ruled the area, raising taxes and running local services. Many government officials at all levels in Gaza were Hamas members or sympathizers before the war.

“You can’t tell if they’re back or if they never left, but either way they’re there now,” said an IDF officer whose unit recently fought Hamas militants in the Sha’ati camp, where heavy fighting took place in November.

International aid officials based in southern Gaza, where fighting has recently focused and where more than a million people displaced from elsewhere in the territory have taken refuge, said Hamas’s presence on the streets was now less visible. They said this was not surprising given the Israeli airstrikes.

One senior aid official told The Guardian: “The technocrats are still operating, but you don’t see the Qassam Brigades (Hamas’s military wing). You still see Hamas police in different areas, which have some control over law and order in some places, including in the north.”

Aid agencies trying to distribute food, fuel and other supplies to displaced people in southern Gaza continue to deal with Hamas-appointed officials. Hamas still provides police escort for convoys, although the group’s grip on power appears to be weaker than before the war.

“There is a general breakdown of law and order. Crime in general is on the rise, which is a serious concern as the needs of the civilian population become increasingly desperate,” said William Schomburg, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Gaza.

Aid officials also reported numerous incidents of looting and attacks on aid trucks, mainly in central Gaza, which is not controlled by either Hamas or Israeli forces.

One of them says: “Many humanitarian aid convoys are accompanied by armed men. It is unclear whether it is the Hamas police, who are still present and visible, or private security companies. There is a fine line between where one begins and the other ends.”

A senior UN official described Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza, as “the last remaining place with any real civil order” due to the presence of local Hamas police.

Several attacks on convoys have been blamed on powerful and heavily armed families in central Gaza, suggesting that these longtime power brokers are regaining confidence and empowerment after years of suppression by Hamas.

Israeli officials say their forces have killed about 9,000 of the 30,000 fighters Hamas estimates it was able to mobilize before the war, which was sparked by a deadly attack the militant group launched in southern Israel in October. Among those killed were about 1,000 elite fighters from the Nukhba Brigades, although Israeli intelligence officials believe between 3,000 and 4,000 remain active.

About 1,200 Israelis, mostly civilians, were killed in Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, and another 240 were taken hostage. Since then, more than 25,000 people have died in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to Palestinian health officials. Many thousands more are believed to be buried in the rubble. Areas of Gaza were destroyed and 1.9 million of its 2.3 million population were displaced.

Matt Levitt, a Hamas expert at the Washington Institute, said the group had seriously deteriorated as a fighting force. “My feeling is that a very significant portion of Hamas’s fighting forces were killed, including the leadership that was killed,” he said. “Even if they are back north, they are fighting like terrorist cells, insurgent cells at best, not companies or battalions.”

Informed sources close to Hamas say there are deep divisions within the organization, including bitter rivalry between the exiled political leadership and a split between those inside Gaza and those outside.

The rift could hamper talks on a new ceasefire, which accelerated after David Barnea, director of Israel’s foreign intelligence service Mossad, flew to Qatar for talks.

The Israeli offensive in Gaza, at its current intensity, could last for months and hostilities could continue for years, military officials, analysts and some politicians in Israel believe.

While there is no evidence of Hamas recruitment in Gaza, this will become more likely if the conflict drags on.

“As long as the war continues, there will be recruitment for the simple reason that the bloodshed, the killing, the destruction, the famine… simply provokes even more hatred and the desire of part of the population to fight,” states Dr. Mkhaimar Abusada, professor of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza.

Hamas also retains clear propaganda capabilities and can edit and produce videos in Gaza. The group is capable of responding to Israeli initiatives, such as the leaflets it dropped in Rafah this month with photographs of dozens of hostages, offering rewards to anyone who provides information on their whereabouts.

Hours later, al-Majd al-Amni, a media outlet affiliated with Hamas’s internal security forces, warned the Palestinians against accepting the proposal.

Milstein said any 16- or 17-year-old in Gaza could be issued a Kalashnikov assault rifle or rocket-propelled grenade launcher, weapons that killed 21 Israelis in one incident last week.

“We cannot say whether this is already underway, but it will be done,” Milstein said. “If this happens, it could look like Iraq after 2003.”